Gavin Baker’s long-form article is worth reading carefully. While the market is in panic and spreads for mega-cap corporate credit have widened, he points out a key fact that’s being overlooked:
Spot GPU leasing prices are at least 2x the contracted prices.
What does that mean? Companies that signed GPU computing contracts for 2024–2025 are now earning excessively high profits, while the pricing for existing computing capacity among mega-cap enterprises is too low. After contract renewals and repricing at maturity, the growth rate of operating cash flow will accelerate from 31% in Q1 to 50% in Q2.
Market consensus expects that by 2028, 25–35GW of additional computing capacity will be needed, with capex of 1.5–2.2 trillion and operating cash flow of 1.3–1.4 trillion. The gap of 100–700 billion will need to be filled with debt. But if contract repricing plus growth acceleration occurs, this gap could disappear outright.
The CDS market is easy to manipulate—short stocks first, then buy CDS; they played this game once during the global financial crisis. Don’t be scared by CDS signals.
The real risk isn’t credit—it’s power grid interconnection and GPU power supply. But progress is being made there.
My view: the credit panic among mega-cap enterprises has been over-priced. The AI infrastructure investment cycle is far from over, and power-related stocks have more alpha than semiconductors themselves.
$BTC #AI基础设施 #美股 #semiconductor
Spot GPU leasing prices are at least 2x the contracted prices.
What does that mean? Companies that signed GPU computing contracts for 2024–2025 are now earning excessively high profits, while the pricing for existing computing capacity among mega-cap enterprises is too low. After contract renewals and repricing at maturity, the growth rate of operating cash flow will accelerate from 31% in Q1 to 50% in Q2.
Market consensus expects that by 2028, 25–35GW of additional computing capacity will be needed, with capex of 1.5–2.2 trillion and operating cash flow of 1.3–1.4 trillion. The gap of 100–700 billion will need to be filled with debt. But if contract repricing plus growth acceleration occurs, this gap could disappear outright.
The CDS market is easy to manipulate—short stocks first, then buy CDS; they played this game once during the global financial crisis. Don’t be scared by CDS signals.
The real risk isn’t credit—it’s power grid interconnection and GPU power supply. But progress is being made there.
My view: the credit panic among mega-cap enterprises has been over-priced. The AI infrastructure investment cycle is far from over, and power-related stocks have more alpha than semiconductors themselves.
$BTC #AI基础设施 #美股 #semiconductor