The XRP price is quietly retreating to an alarming point. In the last 30 days, the price has dropped by approximately 9%, and the momentum seems to have stalled, while the positive social chatter around the token has visibly turned negative. At first glance, this situation may appear to be a weakness, but XRP is known to be one of the coins that performs best when the excitement fades.
This time, the problem dragging down investor sentiment may very well be the very condition that sets the stage for the next move. Moreover, it could again be led by a key holder group.
Problem: When Short-Term Investors Exit, Positive Investor Sentiment Collapses
The main issue is not the price. The problem is investor sentiment.
The positive social sentiment for XRP has fallen to its lowest level in the last three months. A rapid decline has occurred from the recent peak. This metric tracks how often positive comments about XRP are made on social platforms. When sentiment collapses, it indicates more of a fatigue within the community rather than panic.
History shows that this issue is significant.
A similar sentiment drop in mid-October triggered an increase of about 15% within days. At the beginning of November, another dip in positive sentiment brought about a rise of 17% within a week. Towards the end of November, the same pattern was observed; while sentiment dipped, the price rose by approximately 14%.
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This time, the sentiment drop is deeper than previous lows.
This sentiment drop may be triggered by short-term holders. According to HODL Waves data, which tracks how long coins are held; wallets holding XRP for between one day and one week have significantly reduced their share of the supply. This group held about 2.97% of the total supply at the beginning of the month, but this figure has now dropped to 1.18%. This means there is a decrease of over 60%.
To explain it in plain logic, this money, which likely belongs to individual investors and comes in and out quickly, lost interest and shifted focus elsewhere. This is the main issue suppressing sentiment on XRP.
Solution: Long-Term Investors Are Selling Less
This is where the story diverges.
While short-term holders are exiting, long-term holders are doing the opposite. Data tracking the net position changes of long-term holders shows that the selling pressure from these wallets has significantly decreased.
At the beginning of the month, long-term holders were selling approximately 216 million XRP daily. Now, this figure has regularly decreased to around 103 million XRP daily. Thus, sales transactions have dropped by more than half.
This is important because long-term holders are generally not late movers but rather early movers. Slowing distribution when sentiment is low often means quiet accumulation or strategic patience.
The main problem for XRP is the community's indifference. The solution is that experienced holders are no longer producing material for this indifference.
XRP Price Levels: Is the Solution Working?
If this sentiment-based scenario occurs once more, XRP price levels will quickly reveal the situation.
The next immediate target is the resistance at $2.03. There is about an 8% rise potential from the current levels to there. If this area is surpassed, a new momentum could occur towards the resistance bands at $2.09 and $2.17, where previous increases stalled.
In downward movements, XRP must maintain the main support level of $1.77. If support breaks here, the sentiment-based expectation would be invalidated, and the message that long-term holders are giving up on holding supply would spread in the market.
For now, the technical structure continues to hold.
XRP's biggest problem is the complete disappearance of positive investor sentiment. However, historical data shows that when optimism disappears, the first to exit are the weak hands, and strong hands come into play. If this cycle repeats once again, the same problem currently pressuring the XRP price could become the key for the next movement in the upcoming period.
