连长论饼

Trading, like life, is a choice, not just about grinding hard.
What really sets traders apart isn’t just how hard you hustle, but how well you evolve your understanding and stay committed.
What does that mean?
Think about the ocean's tides; the rising and falling isn’t because some wave is pushing hard, but due to the gravitational pull of the moon and sun.
The market is like the tides; the ups and downs follow a pattern.
The truly profitable traders, they only do one thing: ride the waves.
When the tide comes in, he rides the wave; when it goes out, he patiently waits.
He doesn’t compete with the market, nor does he compete with himself.

There is a type of loss that brings a pain far greater than ordinary stop-losses. It’s not that you misjudged the direction; rather, you saw it correctly, but the market temporarily moved against you. Thus, you begin to 'averaging down,' trying to lower the average cost, hoping that a rebound can free you from losses or even turn a profit.
This sounds like a form of rational self-rescue, but why does it often evolve into an irretrievable disaster? Because the driving forces behind it are a mix of 'loss aversion' and 'self-justification.' When faced with unrealized losses, acknowledging mistakes and cutting losses is one of the hardest things for human nature to accept.

I once walked alone in the dark night, allowing the thorns of fate to pierce my skin, letting pain surge like a tide, penetrating every inch of bone and every drop of blood. It was the tempering of my soul, the fierce flames that one must endure before the phoenix rises.
I grit my teeth, refuse to give up, show no fear, letting tears freeze in my eyes, turning wails into silent screams in my throat. Pain has become my hardest armor; silence is my sharpest blade.
I step through the swamp, each step firm and heavy, as if engaging in a silent struggle with fate. The mud and darkness cannot hinder my progress, for I know that only by crossing this despair can I welcome the dawn's light.

You think you have a trading system, but I can tell you directly that most people have never truly had a system. What you have are just a few rules that look like memories. You say you have a system, so I will ask you three questions.
When you have three consecutive losing trades, will you still execute according to your original plan?
When you miss a market opportunity, will you chase it at the last moment?
When your account is in drawdown, will you adjust your position structure?
If your answer is 'it depends,' then it indicates one thing: you do not have a trading system.
What is a system? Many people mistakenly think that moving averages + patterns + indicators equal a system, but that's not the case. This is just the entry condition. A true system must include four parts: 'entry logic - exit rules - risk control - emotional constraints.' If any one of these is missing, it is not a system. More importantly, a system is not something that is written down; a system is something you can execute in any state. If you only execute when calm and fail during emotional times, then it is not a system.

If you are trading, the most feared situation is not a one-sided decline or rise. It is this kind of market where you can't go long or short; just when you decide to go long, it drops, and just when you decide to go short, it rises! Just when you stop loss, it reverses, and just when you enter the market, you get trapped. You think you made the wrong judgment, but actually, you didn't.
In this article, I will use some simple words to tell you what a fluctuation really is and how we should act in it! After reading, you will understand why some people lose more in fluctuations while others can avoid being harvested here.
What is the essence of fluctuation? In one sentence, fluctuation is a kind of market that makes you lose no matter what you do. To be more professional, when you are bearish at a large level, the small level is crazily rising, and it doesn't give you a comfortable opportunity to short at all. When you get scared by the rise and turn to look bullish, the small level starts to violently crash down, directly hitting your stop loss. There are no opportunities when bearish, and there are no opportunities when bullish either; the repeated pulling between long and short hits you back and forth. This is fluctuation; it is not here to give you money, but specifically to drain you, torment you, and wash you out.

The capital market is like a banquet that never ends, perpetually recurring and thriving. There is a saying that where there are people, there are transactions; the transactions in the capital market are even more direct, violent, and bloody. It is also a science, and even more so, an art—a behavioral art that reveals insights into human nature.
The role of individuals in the capital market can be said to be the greatest or, conversely, completely useless; the only useful aspect is the driving force of money. The volatility of the capital market is an objective result of the collective behavior of the group. For a trader to profit in a market without any safety margin is extremely difficult.

Since the market peaked at 4950 USD in August last year, it has launched a defense battle for Ethereum with 4060 as the defense line, and ultimately we saw the defense line breached. At that time, the market was influenced by market sentiment and various news events, leading to a renewed bull market push in the final round. However, when the market hit the strong resistance area of 4750-4780, the miracle did not occur, and then we faced the annual black swan event 1011! After the market underwent the test of time, it did not manage to stabilize above 4000 again, signaling the end of the bull market!
After the end of the bull market, the market will only manifest in two ways: first, a range-bound fluctuation, and second, a bear market conversion. In the later stages, we saw the market enter a bear market with a downward trend marked by a large cyclical fluctuation.

Today, I want to share with you about Bitcoin, from 2008 to now 2026, four rounds of bull markets, the entire drawdown depth of several bull markets in history, to give you a real judgment, from the bull market phase local or endpoint peak, unit maximum drop:
1. First round bull market of 2011: Peak: $33, Low: $2! Maximum drawdown: about 94%. Core features: Very early market, only geeks participating, extremely poor liquidity, extreme drawdown, no reference.
2. Second round bull market of 2013: Peak: $1150, Low: $150! Maximum drawdown: about 87%. Core features: First time entering public view, immature exchange system, weak market structure.

Don't be constrained by any rules

These five rules apply perfectly to today's market conditions!
Capture the volatility: the complete structure of major cycle tops and bottoms is essential. No matter the pattern, seize the key support and resistance levels, hold the inevitable path, identify entry points from smaller timeframes, manage risk properly, and avoid overtrading! Take profits and exit quickly—this is the ultimate strategy!
Consolidation is always followed by a breakout: don't follow the crowd during high-level consolidation—likely a fake breakout designed to trap you; don't chase bargains during low-level grinding—sharp declines often hide in your expectations! Until the breakout signal is confirmed, keeping your hands off is the real win!
Consolidation is a trap: data doesn't lie. The vast majority of liquidations happen right after consolidation ends! Those who can't resist the urge to trade will inevitably become fodder for others' manipulation!