According to Cointelegraph: Potential Bitcoin (BTC) price plunge stirs analyst discussions
Bitcoin's price has dipped by more than 12% over the past 30 days after achieving a record high near $73,835 on March 14, raising questions about its potential decline.
Trading data indicate that the (BTC) price has fallen, from a peak of $64,727 on April 30, dropping 6.5% to an intraday low of $60,505. This fall corresponds with a lukewarm response to the recent spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs launch in Hong Kong and the rising concern about stagflation in the U.S. Also, the sustained sluggish flow into U.S. Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs intensifies the downward pressure on the BTC price.
Analysts suggest a potential price drop as low as $42,000
Bitcoin's 2024 extraordinary surge in price, culminating in record highs before the halving event, has stimulated speculations on whether it has reached its peak. Despite trading at 17% below its peak and having dropped 7% since the supply subsidy halving on April 20, some market watchers are contemplating a potential decline to the low $40,000 range.
Independent trader Ali drew on previous halving cycles where realized profit increases have often coincided with market peaks. He referenced Glassnode data, which revealed a surge in realized profits to $3.52 billion when Bitcoin (BTC) reached peak levels on March 14. Further investigation of the short-term holder's realized price could ascertain this market top hypothesis, suggesting that a confirmed top could see Bitcoin (BTC) plummet towards $51,530 or even $42,700.
Bitcoin (BTC) may experience a breather in a reaccumulation range
Analyst Rekt Capital suggested that this market drop remained part of a typical bull market setup, despite Bitcoin (BTC) deviating from its history by declining after its 2024 halving. He considered the (BTC) price currently in a "Re-accumulation Range," a trajectory usually occurring before the halving.
The 200-day EMA acts as Bitcoin's final safeguard
In technical terms, Bitcoin's price was resting on immediate support from the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $59,944. If this support line is broken, we could potentially witness a price decline towards the 200-day EMA, currently at $51,900, equating to a 15% drop from present levels. This EMA coincides with Bitcoin's horizontal support zone between $50,000 and $52,000, providing an opportunity to repeat its previous pattern of a sizeable surge following a successful resistance hold.
