According to Jinshi, Nomura Securities pointed out that based on CPI and PPI data, the US core PCE is expected to increase by 0.276% month-on-month in March, a slight acceleration from 0.261% in February. Housing service inflation remained stable, and the prices of some services (such as auto repair services and legal services) rose strongly in the month. Forecasts show that the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in March was 2.7% (2.722%), down 0.1 percentage point from 2.8% in the previous month. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously mentioned that the Fed staff's forecast for March is a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, which means that the Fed's preferred monthly core PCE inflation is 0.31% or higher, which brings some upside risks to our forecast.
