The BTC rate showed a brisk rebound yesterday after falling to $58,946, but there are several "BUTs". Despite the fact that right now the price has recovered above $61,000.
Firstly, the downward structure of the candles on the daily chart continues.
Secondly (and this is the main thing) - the entire movement on October 9 looks like a breakout of the ascending trend support from September 6 and (!) a retest of this breakout that took place yesterday.
Retests of breakouts of such supports on the daily chart can hardly be called positive.
Although there is no argument - yesterday's candle closed with a bullish shadow from below. Definitely pluses and price recovery higher:
- volume level $59,335,
- level 0.5 according to Fibonacci on the September uptrend (rate $59,524),
- local downward trend since October 7,
- EMA 200 daily TF (currently $60,009),
- and of course the psychological $60,000.
There is a reasonable opinion that yesterday's decline was a hunt for large bulls. Yesterday,#Binancereceived liquidations of large long positions for $3.57 million and $10.5 million.
Of course, it may be. But this is no reason to believe that the decline is over.
The most bullish signal right now would be a close of today's daily candle above $62,200 and without a bearish shadow above. Because that would mean the formation of a bullish "Morning Star" pattern. On the daily#BTCis working out very well.
But there are no reasons for such movement on the horizon for today, and the weekend is ahead.
We will consider the chance of a reversal from the current ones to be the closing (!) of the daily candle above the EMA 50 of the daily TF (currently $61,413). Before that, we are only talking about a rebound before going below the current low of $58,946. Most likely - to the volume level of $57,709 and after the withdrawal of liquidity behind the low of September 16 $57,493.
Situation on P73 Trend & Target Dynamics: the price is in a stable downtrend on the two-, four-, twelve-hour TFs, but in a stable uptrend (and has worked out some of the basic targets) on the 15-minute and 30-minute TFs. And the price has just moved into a stable uptrend on the hourly TF, with basic targets of $61,457, $61,819.
On the daily chart, the rebound by the end of yesterday maintained a stable uptrend on the daily TF. But the situation remains on the edge. We set an alert for a transition to a stable uptrend on the two-hour TF, this may be an important clue for further movement.
