In the cryptocurrency market, bull and bear markets alternate, constantly driving the development and evolution of the market. However, this market is still full of uncertainty and risk. This article will explore whether the bull market in the cryptocurrency world will come again, and when the next bull market may occur.
It has been 13 years since Bitcoin was launched in 2009. During this period, the virtual currency market has experienced three major bull markets. All three bull markets were driven by the surge in Bitcoin, so the market of Bitcoin can represent the market of the entire virtual market.
The first bull run occurred from January to December 2013, when Bitcoin rose from $13 to $1,147, an increase of more than 1 million times. The second bull run was from January to December 2017, when Bitcoin soared from $789 to $19,878, an increase of more than 24 times in one year. The third bull run occurred from March 2020 to November 2021, when Bitcoin rose from $3,800 to $69,000 in a year and a half, an increase of more than 90 million times.
However, the virtual currency market is too speculative, and most currencies have no practical value, which has led to many countries not recognizing these virtual currencies. Therefore, many countries, including our country, not only do not recognize virtual currencies, but also vigorously crack down on the trading and speculation of virtual currencies.
It was not until the bull market started in 2020 and Bitcoin price exceeded 50,000 US dollars that virtual currency officially attracted the attention of the world. History will not repeat itself simply, but it will be surprisingly similar. The bull market in the cryptocurrency circle over the years has been driven by Bitcoin, and the bull market of Bitcoin is generally driven by the halving market.
Many people try to predict the future market by studying the past historical trends. However, although the three bull markets in history seem to follow a certain pattern, there must be a lot of other factors that jointly catalyze the bull market. We cannot simply stick to the old ways, otherwise we will mislead others and ourselves.
As for when the next bull market will come, it is now certain that the next Bitcoin halving will be in early May 2024. According to experience, the Bitcoin market is likely to start a bull market 3-6 months before the halving, that is, around the first quarter of 2024. However, this only considers the factor of Bitcoin halving, without considering the impact of other factors.
At present, the virtual currency market is increasingly connected with the traditional financial market, which means that the trend of the virtual currency market will be affected by the traditional financial environment. For example, this bear market is largely caused by interest rate hikes. According to the global interest rate hike storm, most economists expect the Fed to continue raising interest rates until the first quarter of 2023.
In general, although the exact time of the next bull market cannot be determined, based on the historical halving market and the impact of the traditional financial environment, we can preliminarily infer that the next bull market may occur around the first time in 2024. However, this is just a prediction, and the market trend is affected by many factors, so investors should remain cautious and rational, and not blindly follow the trend.
