In the second stage, the trading volume will be completely maintained at about 100 billion yuan per day, and it will increase by 100-300 points in a week; then comes the third stage, when institutions begin to leave the market, the problem of state-owned assets increasing shares to resolve debts is completely over, the stock market begins to fall, and retail investors gradually begin to get stuck. The most important judgment here is to keep an eye on the statements of Goldman Sachs and foreign capital, whose predictions are much more accurate than those of domestic investors. It is said in the circle that Goldman Sachs has never made a wrong judgment on the decline of the Chinese stock market, and has never predicted the bull market accurately. Goldman Sachs wants everyone to run, so we must leave the market in a big step. For domestic news, we only need to pay attention to the statutory debt balance of local governments, which is 410 billion yuan (excluding urban investment). If it is one-to-one, the debt of urban investment is 400 billion yuan, and the total debt of local governments is about 800 billion yuan (there are other data saying that it is 150-200 billion yuan, which Lao Cui cannot judge). We will calculate it based on the local debt of 80. The current total market value of the stock market must be at least about 1.2 times the domestic GDP.

That is to say, it is necessary to increase the current 90 billion to about 150 billion, so that there is room for debt resolution. However, based on history, according to previous operating ideas, it will generally start to fall when it rises to about 100-120 billion. In general, it will start to expand shares to reduce debts when it grows to about 10-20%. Converted to this range, that is, the current 3300 points of the old A point will rise to about 3500-3600 points, and everyone should be ready to run away. Even if you can get a profit of 4000 points on the upper side, don't continue to hold. At present, investment in the stock market can only be used to hedge the 280 billion additional issuance, that is, to hedge against currency depreciation. As long as you can outperform the currency depreciation rate, everyone will make money in this wave, and those who run slowly will definitely be trapped. At around 3500-3600, you can still exit the market with dignity. For individual stocks, there will not be a general rise. This is indeed the best time for you to exit the market. In addition, the recent instability in the Middle East and the data released by the United States have always exceeded expectations and led to growth (although Lao Cui does not believe it), but if we talk about it every day, there will definitely be some growth. The growth of the US dollar and US stocks is likely to return to the top of the world.