At the opening of a new week, Bitcoin closed above the weekly EMA15 moving average. The 2-day line also stood above the 20EMA yesterday, and the daily chart also stood above EMA15 this morning. Therefore, under the resonance of multiple cycles, Bitcoin ushered in a wave of pull-ups in the morning. It stabilized and rebounded a few days ago. At present, Bitcoin has the potential to reverse and continue to attack. If it goes up again, it is likely to start a trend. Therefore, judging from the overall market trend, a bullish trend has formed, and there is no reason not to buy. At present, many cottages are at very low positions, and it is a good time to layout and build positions! Ethereum is currently focusing on the breakthrough near 2530!
Markets are forward-looking, and I think the market had already priced in October seasonal trends in advance, and just as the market was starting to gain momentum, geopolitical factors disrupted the rally - specifically the conflict between Israel and Iran. This conflict happened to occur at key high time frame (HTF) levels, and many early players were preparing to take profits at these levels. As a result, late entrants and highly leveraged positions were washed out by the market. Those who entered early and played wisely have likely locked in profits and are waiting for the upcoming elections to bring more clarity to the market direction.
We are currently facing many uncertainties:
Geopolitics: The situation between Israel and Iran has added to market uncertainty.
Election: The outcome remains unknown, raising anxiety about potential policy changes.
Macroeconomics: While recent good employment data may indicate a strong economy, it also puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma regarding future interest rate decisions.
I don’t think altcoin prices will fall below the August lows, more likely we will experience choppy range trading before the election, after which I believe the direction of the market will be upwards no matter who wins as a lot of uncertainty will be removed by then, and markets and investors generally don’t like uncertainty.
If Trump wins: Expect more volatility in the market. We have seen a sudden and sharp upward reaction to the Trump attack, which shows the market's intention. I think a Trump victory will attract institutions to enter the market in a big way because regulatory uncertainty will be reduced under the new administration.
If Harris wins: The market may panic or sell off first, but after the panic subsides, participants will rationalize the outcome and the market may return to a slow upward trend. Eventually, a new macro narrative will emerge and traders will convince themselves that the market is in good shape, supporting upward momentum. In this case, institutions will enter the market more slowly and cautiously.
We all know that sector rotation is very obvious in a bull market. After one concept rises, the next concept rises! In short, the big bull market is composed of a main hotspot narrative + multiple rotating small hotspots, so how to hold this rhythm of the market?
This stage now may be the initial stage starting with the rotation of big cake + meme. How you grasp the rotation rhythm and whether you can grasp it will determine your gains in this bull market!
1. For the main track targets, when they are undervalued, allocate in advance! Wait for the outbreak to enter the overvalued range and then start selling in batches, which is a clean and tidy transaction of one buy and one sell.
2. For sudden hot tracks, look at the abnormal movement of the main funds and the continuity of the hot narrative to decide whether to take action!
Generally speaking, the abnormal movement of the main funds depends on whether the K has a bottom with large volume. If the bottom has been trading for a long time and then suddenly the volume increases and the decline is very strong, it may become a short-term hot track.
The most obvious hot track at the moment is the meme track. There are currently no other new directions with new gameplay and new value points. When they appear, we will share them with you as soon as possible.
How to distinguish the main track and the short-term sudden hot track?
I think the main tracks in this round, in addition to BTC and mainstream leaders, are the current AI, meme and bitcoin ecology, which should be the main tracks of this round of hot spots.
In the short-term sudden hot track, such as the previous BTC concept, the main force suddenly took over and pulled up the market.
When the main capital is pushing up the price, it will see whether there are people following, how many people follow, whether the sentiment is in place, etc. If no one follows after testing the pull-up, it will have to push it down again.
For example, the highly anticipated BTC some time ago, was very promising at the beginning, but the expectations and valuations were too high after it went online, and few people followed it. It may also be that other hot tracks are more conducive to the main speculation. In short, it did not pull up, either because the main forces believed that the cost-effectiveness was not high, or there was insufficient short-term consensus, so it directly entered the wash-out stage.
Next, it depends on whether the main force will continue to use it to tell stories and make a profit.
