Here’s a breakdown of the current Bitcoin (BTC) fair value model and its projections, with compelling insights that illustrate why the future is so bright:

1. Advanced Statistical Model

Utilizes 747,614 data points collected in 10-minute price intervals to ensure precision.

Based on 24/7 BTC trading data since July 2010, making it the most comprehensive and robust model available.

2. Fair Value Projections

Current Fair Value (2024): $67,748.

Fair Value by Jan 1, 2034: $1,004,538.

This model uses 50% quantile regression, meaning the fair value projection is at the median—50% of data points are above, and 50% are below this value.

3. Market Movements: Tracking Cycles

The current BTC pump and consolidation phase brought us back to fair value, based on historical trends.

If you compare the 2020 cycle with earlier cycles (2012 and 2016), we are ahead in terms of progress toward fair value.

Historically, BTC has shown consistent parabolic moves when closely following the fair value red line.

4. Key Observations

The "real fun" hasn’t started yet: The model indicates that BTC is poised for significant movement.

This statistical model doesn't rule out the possibility of BTC reaching $1,000,000 before 2034 during a bull run.

The fair value of $1,000,000 by 2034 is statistically projected, but historical BTC volatility could push prices higher earlier in bull cycles.

5. Historical Consistency

Each BTC halving cycle has seen BTC exceed fair value in its bull phases before returning to it.

Past cycles show that BTC has historically over-performed against fair value in bullish markets, which could suggest more upside than the model even projects.

6. Long-Term Perspective

Investors should remember that BTC’s fair value is constantly adjusting based on market conditions, but the long-term trend shows steadfast growth.

Based on this data-driven model, th path to $1M by 2034 is statistically sound and aligns with BTC’s previous trajectory.