The following is from James Stavridis, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, retired U.S. Navy Admiral, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, and Dean Emeritus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University
We are on the brink of a dangerous precipice in the Middle East. Richard Haass, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, told me on Wednesday that he feels we are at a "tipping point" in the region. Thomas L. Friedman of the New York Times is more pessimistic. It is "red alert time," he wrote.
But even before Israel's campaign against Hezbollah, and before Iran's massive ballistic missile retaliation, I was often asked how likely it was that the Middle East would descend into regional war. Now, as then, the short answer is: No one knows. But the potential for a widening conflict has never been greater in decades.
What would a true regional war in the Middle East look like? How might it unfold specifically — in the air, at sea, and on land? Would the United States inevitably be drawn into the conflict?
In the year since Hamas attacked Israel, violence and military escalation between Israel and Iran (and its proxies) have been locked in an unresolvable cycle.
In the next move in this deadly conflict, the Israelis are likely to respond strongly to this week's Iranian missile attack.
While the Iranian strike miraculously failed to cause any civilian casualties, many senior Israeli leaders have vowed to make Iran, in Netanyahu’s words, “pay the price for this.” That could include long-range airstrikes across roughly 1,000 miles of disputed airspace against the most vulnerable parts of Iran’s nuclear program, which is deliberately spread out across the vast country.
Doing so would require loading GBU-57 Bunker Buster bombs onto modified F-15 Strike Eagle fighters and performing complex aerial refueling.
The Israelis would have to strike many sites, 21 of which have been disclosed to the IAEA, including Natanz, Fordow, Arak, and Parchin. There are also undisclosed sites. Such an airstrike would require dozens, if not hundreds, of aircraft. Some nuclear facilities are located 300 feet underground.
The air fleet would also need dedicated fighter jets like the F-35, as well as electronic warfare aircraft. Getting permission to fly over regional countries could prove difficult to achieve, meaning the IDF could have to deal with third-party intervention from Syria, Turkey, Iraq, or Azerbaijan.
The S-300 air defense systems Iran received from Russia and its Cold War-era MiG-29 and F-14 fighter jets are not powerful but could complicate any strike.
If Israel continues its airstrikes, the Iranian response will be significant. Hezbollah will no doubt be ordered to launch as many surface-to-surface missiles as possible. Perhaps a third of the 130,000 missiles in its pre-conflict arsenal have been knocked out or destroyed by Israel in recent weeks.
But if only half of the remaining rockets were fired in batches toward Tel Aviv, Haifa, military installations, Mossad facilities, and the political center of Jerusalem, the damage and civilian casualties would be considerable, even taking into account Israel's powerful air defense system.
In addition, an Israeli attack on Iran could lead Hamas to execute the remaining hostages it holds from last year's October 7 attack. Terrorists could also attempt to carry out numerous isolated attacks inside Israel, such as the one that killed seven Israeli civilians and injured more than a dozen in Jaffa earlier this week. Or the Yemeni Houthis could step up their long-range missile attacks.
But the main threat is an Iranian retaliatory ballistic missile strike on Israel far more powerful than Tuesday’s strike. Using most of the 3,000 ballistic missiles in its inventory, Iran’s strikes would overwhelm Israel’s air defenses and flood the country’s hospitals with wounded. While the quality of Iran’s maintenance and aiming is questionable, numbers can make up for many mistakes and deficiencies.
At the same time, Iran could launch drone strikes—planned by Iranian Shia militias in Syria or western Iraq—to conduct covert attacks on Israeli nuclear facilities and the IDF Air Force. This could be accompanied by a major cyberattack.
The Iranian navy, while not a formidable force, could attack Western shipping and, most importantly, attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. This would require the use of mines, small speedboats, and submarines: Iran has these and trains regularly for this mission. The consequences of disrupting the flow of oil and gas from such a move could devastate the global economy.
A major ground operation is unlikely, at least initially. Iran has a million active troops, about two-thirds of whom are on active duty. It has a young population of nearly 90 million with which to raise more troops, and can rely on some militia allies in Syria and Lebanon. Could they launch a ground offensive against Israel through southern Iraq and Syria?
Difficult to achieve, but not impossible.
The United States would almost certainly be drawn into an all-out war between Israel and Iran. The Israelis would want significant combat support: top-level intelligence from surveillance aircraft and satellites, cyber warfare support, advanced weaponry, aerial refueling.
Arab states will try to remain neutral, though they would certainly welcome the collapse of Iranian proxies and a reduction in military capabilities. Turkey will be a wild card, but will likely not allow either side passage or access to Turkish bases.
Overall, a true regional war between Israel and Iran could devastate the global economy, kill tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians, provoke diplomatic chaos, and embroil Washington in something it very much wants to avoid.
Israel has every reason to want to strike back at Iran. However, hating your enemy too much may cloud your judgment.
Israel should focus on destroying everything about Hezbollah rather than seeking a regional war; work to establish a peacekeeping force, achieve a ceasefire and release hostages in Gaza, and continue to show strength to deter Iran from further escalation.
The red alert has indeed been sounded in the Middle East.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data