Economists at TD Securities believe that by the end of 2023, both the U.S. core CPI and core PCE will be above the inflation target level. Although commodity deflation and deflation in the real estate market are expected to bring cumulative help. CPI will remain above 3%. Getting CPI below 3% will be the real challenge, as the persistent factors driving service sector inflation will become more apparent. In addition, the overall U.S. CPI is expected to record a strong year-on-year growth rate of 7.1% by the end of this year; core CPI will reach a high of 6%, but will fall to 3.3% by the fourth quarter of 2023. TD Securities economists also expect the gap between CPI and PCE to narrow by the end of next year, with core PCE growth at 3% year-over-year by the end of 2023.