Inflation, geopolitics, stock markets
An important week begins in the American stock market.
On Thursday, data on inflation, the change of which affects, first of all, the yield of bonds and further actions of the Fed. A slight drop in inflation is expected for September to 3.6% (-0.1%) y/y. Core inflation is expected at the level of 4.1%. This is still more than the target, but the trend is downward).
The escalation of the war in Israel will have a strong impact on the commodity markets, especially the prices of oil and gold will rise. In principle, they have already started their upward movement and will continue in the near future.
Well, this week marks the start of reporting season. Interestingly, it is the reports of banks that keep long-term bonds on their balance sheets. Preliminary total losses from investments in long-term bonds amount to more than 1.6 trillion dollars. Banks report first, so we'll see this week.
In general, an inflow of capital to the US, a strengthening of the dollar and an increase in bond prices are expected.