The bull came and went again - market analysis and subsequent market forecast 10.8
The first post after the holiday. Let’s talk about the market conditions today and see if there are any suitable opportunities for copycats tomorrow. Let’s first review the previous trends. Big pie daily line: As shown in the figure, since the big pie hit the year's high of 3.18w on July 13, it continued to fluctuate and fall for two months. Until the National Day, a positive line broke through the downward trend line for more than two months, and then reached the highest Hit 2.86w. But this breakthrough has a flaw, the trading volume is mediocre and there is no amplification. The upward breakthrough itself is a strong signal, but the shrinkage is a weak signal. If one strong and one weak are mixed together to form a sum, then the signal will not have much meaning. Then on October 2nd, the K-line immediately showed a negative line with heavy volume. Fortunately, there was no positive or negative line, so the long and short sides once again reached a balance here, and the market entered a sideways fluctuation. What is more interesting during this period is the big needle on October 6th. Let’s look at the 15min line: This round of rapid decline started at 2.77w. After it was inserted at 2.68w, it pulled up in a V-shape, reaching a maximum of 2.83w. The V shape is low on the left and high on the right, reflecting that bulls are still relatively strong here. However, here is another but, this rapid rise did not reach a new high in the end - breaking through 2.86w. As of writing this article, the price has dropped back to about 2.77w. It is worth watching whether it can be sustained here. Then we return to the daily line to talk about the key points of observation and follow-up deductions. The first position to observe is 2.77w, which cannot be sustained. The first target position (observation position) below is 2.70w. If it cannot hold on around 2.70w, then this short-term upward trend will come to an end. This is a more pessimistic and trouble-free move. The observation position above is still looking at 2.86w, that is, whether it can reach a new high. However, even if it is a new high, I personally think that the target in the short and medium term is around 3.10,000, because the fundamentals in the short and medium term - liquidity cannot support the market to break through 3.20,000. ——The reason why the market has been so boring since October 1st is a classic manifestation of liquidity exhaustion. To sum up, I think there will be two scenarios for the subsequent trend: one is optimistic, the market returns to around 3w, makes a triple top (head and shoulders top), and then falls. Another pessimistic point of view is that the market cannot successfully break through 2.86. After continuing to fluctuate for a few days, it resumes its decline and hits 2.86 again.5w. The script is like this, but of course the actual execution will definitely not be as smooth as the diagram. As for the specific situation, it depends on the performance of the pie price at three observation points: 2.70w, 2.77w, and 2.86w. In terms of operation, I still hold the same view. The short-term contract of the big pie has no operational significance. Note that what is mentioned here is the short-term contract, and the medium and long-term contracts are another matter. I’ll see if there are any suitable copycats that I can check out in the next two days. If you have any good targets, you can recommend them in the comment section and I’ll go and observe them. Regarding market analysis, I think one more point can be added here, that is, the winning rate of technical analysis is not only related to the level of the person, but also related to the market atmosphere and the quality of the market. When the market is good, even if you are just starting to make blind analysis, you can always get it right; when the market is bad, many experts will always fail. I mention this because I want to say that your inability to make money on a stock with a bad trend is not entirely your fault. You don’t have to doubt yourself. The best way to deal with this situation is to stay away from it. That's right, I'm talking about pie. That’s it, I love you guys~
