The time now is October 1, 2023. Let me start with the conclusion: the Bitcoin bull market in 24-25 years will be different from any previous bull market. Let me share my views from two perspectives. The first is the guiding significance of the past Bitcoin halving market for the future, and the second is the possible impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy over the past years on the highest point of Bitcoin’s next round of market prices. Part One: Bitcoin Halving Market Over the Years Bitcoin halving occurs every four years, and the specific time is uncertain. At present, the next halving time is 2024.05.09, which is 319 days away. Let’s look back at the past halving cycles. The first halving occurred in November 2012. The lowest point occurred 357 days before and the highest point occurred 371 days after that. The total lasted 735 days. The highest increase from the halving was 104 times. The second halving occurred in July 2016. The lowest point occurred 546 days before and the highest point occurred 518 days after that. It lasted a total of 1071 days. The maximum increase from the halving was 40 times. The third halving occurred in May 2020. The lowest point occurred 518 days before and the highest point occurred 546 days after that. It lasted a total of 1071 days. The maximum increase from the halving was 7.5 times. We can see the similarities: 1. There always seems to be a lowest point before each halving, and it always occurs between 1 and 1.5 years; 2. The high point after the halving appears between 1 and 1.5 years; 3 . Before the halving, there are basically opportunities to hit the bottom twice or even multiple times, and the intervals between bottoms vary; 4. Before the halving, there is basically a calf market, with the increase ranging from 6 times to 4 times at the beginning, and then to 3.5 times; once the halving begins, there is no chance for a second dip, and it keeps rising all the way. There are also some differences: 1. There is not a double top at the top of every halving cycle; 2. As the volume becomes larger and larger, the increase after each halving is getting lower and lower, from 100 at the beginning times to the latest 7.5 times; 3. The slope of each rise is getting lower and lower (63°-48°-31°), and the overall trend seems to be heading toward the top of an arc. History often does not simply repeat itself. If history does repeat itself in such a simple rhyme, what can we do now? First of all, based on past history, we can make the following conjecture: around 15,000 is the lowest point before this halving cycle. If there is a new low in the future, it will only be around here, probably around 18,000 (that is, assuming 15,000 as the bottom, Bottoming behavior occurs near the neckline of the bottom area);There is a high probability that there will be a wave of calves before each halving cycle. We seem to be experiencing such a market at present. If the increase from the bottom to the top of the calf market does not exceed 3.4 times, if this time it is around 2-2.5 times, then The top of the Mavericks this time will be between 30,000 and 37,500; the upward slope of each halving cycle continues to decrease. If the decline is about 16° according to the historical situation, then the next highest price should be around 65,000, and the highest price will not exceed the previous price. At the highest point of this rise, the overall cycle increase is about 1.5 times from May 2024 to March 2025; if the slope of this rise is set at 15°, then you can refer to the highest price of the calf top before the halving About 31,500-33,000. So if history really repeats itself in a simple rhyme, in terms of operations, we have the following conclusions: the current price is not far from the top of the Mavericks before the predicted halving market; if 15,000 shorts the bits, there is a high probability that there will be another purchase opportunity; in the face of the next halving market, if the underlying choice is Bit, the imagination of the increase will not be too high, and may be near the previous high; the second dip may occur in the first quarter of next year, that is During the Russian election; this article is written from the perspective of trying to find a way to solve the problem, but compared with before, the current macro background is very different. Bitcoin was born due to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. Since then, the United States has continued to print money, starting a bull market that has lasted for more than ten years. The S&P 500 has also increased 6.5 times since the low in 2009. Compared with before, there are still many Uncertainty: The macro economy is not clear, and the potential impact of China's short-term reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts has not yet appeared; the international situation has changed dramatically, and the Russia-Ukraine war is still continuing; the U.S. interest rate hikes have not stopped, although it has now suspended interest rate increases, but It is expected that there will be two more interest rate hikes this year; it is still unknown whether U.S. real estate can land smoothly, and the banking crisis is still there; as the currency circle becomes larger and larger, each round of increases will become smaller and smaller; after institutions enter the market in 2020, and The correlation of the Nasdaq is getting higher and higher, and some people even regard Bitcoin as a technology stock in the US stock market. When looking at Bitcoin in the general cycle of the US stock market, even if there is a big release in 2020, the increase does not seem to be high; Part 2: Review the history of the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle, starting with the past 30 years of interest rate hikes: the first round of interest rate hikes, 1994.2-1995.2, lasting 12 months, the base interest rate ranged from 3% to 6%. The background at that time was that relying on the electronic computer technology accumulated in the previous cycle, the United States was in an era of comprehensive take-off in information technology. Even with the interest rate hikes from 1994 to 1995, GDP growth has always remained above 3%. Corresponding to the big cycle, this is also the beginning of this round of Kangbo prosperity. The characteristics of the prosperity period are low inflation and high growth. After the interest rate hike ended, the Nasdaq did not fall significantly. The second round of interest rate hikes lasted 11 months from June 1999 to May 2000, with the benchmark interest rate raised from 4.75% to 6.5%. The background at that time was the Internet speculative bubble from 1995 to 2001. The GDP growth rate had been maintained at around 4.5% all year round. After the last round of interest rate hikes, inflation dropped from 3% to around 1.7%. At this time, we were still in the Kangbo boom period. . After 1998, the inflation trend was obvious (from around 1.7% to around 3.7%). In order to reduce financial risks and curb inflation, the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates based on the 4.75% interest rate until the Nasdaq reached its peak near 5,000 points in March 2000. After half of the year, it fell all the way to around 1100 points, when interest rates dropped from 6.5% to 2.5%. It is worth mentioning that the Nasdaq did not enter a downward trend during the interest rate hike cycle, but first rose and then fell. Similarly, the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle did not bring an upward trend. Instead, the decline continued for 20 months. However, sudden events like 911 An interest rate cut can bring about a partial rebound in the market, but it cannot affect the general trend. The third round of interest rate hikes lasted 25 months from 2004.6 to 2006.7, and the benchmark interest rate was raised from 1% to 5.25%. The background at that time was the beginning of a new production capacity cycle at the beginning of the century, China's accession to the WTO in December 2001, the post-9.11 disaster reconstruction in the United States, the economy began to recover, and the Kangbo boom period was coming to an end. In one and a half years, the Nasdaq rose from 1100 points to 2100 points. At this time, the US GDP also returned to a growth rate of 5%, and the CPI further increased, rising from around 1.5% after the disaster to around 3.8%. To prevent a repeat of the past, the Federal Reserve carried out regular interest rate hikes. As the interest rate hike cycle began, the stock market as a whole showed a volatile upward trend, GDP growth began to slow down, and CPI also fell smoothly back to post-disaster levels. The fourth round of interest rate hikes lasted 36 months from 2015.12 to 2018.12, with the benchmark interest rate raised from 0% to 2.25%. The background at that time was that after the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve quickly lowered its benchmark interest rate to 0-0.25%, which lasted until 2015. China's 4 trillion yuan release, the commodity bear market started in 2011, the oil price plummeted from 110 to 27 in 2014-2016, China's industrial level transitioned from the late take-off stage to the mature stage, the UK left the European Union, and the long wave changed from recession The period is turning into a depression period, and the macroeconomy is facing the possibility of turning from inflation to stagflation. Synchronized with the Nasdaq, in August 2015, the second exploration before the bit halving was completed. The decline in energy prices gave China and the United States even signs of deflation in CPI. In order to curb the rise in inflation caused by the short-term excess of energy and the possibility of stagflation in the future, the United States has initiated an interest rate hike cycle. During this round of interest rate hikes, the Nasdaq fluctuated upward, rising from a low of 4,300 to 8,100. GDP growth slowly recovered to around 3.5%, and CPI has been controlled below 3%. The fifth round of interest rate hikes, 2022.3-? , which lasted for at least 18 months, and the benchmark interest rate was raised from 0% to at least 5.5-5.75%. The background at this time is that after the COVID-19 epidemic, the Federal Reserve released a lot of water, inflation surged, and the CPI reached a maximum of more than 8%. The Russia-Ukraine war, China's urbanization process entered a bottleneck, the credit of the US dollar weakened, the internationalization of the RMB, and the epidemic accelerated the recession process. Most of the People set the dividing line from recession to depression in 2015. The reason is that there is a high probability that 2015-2019 will experience the process from inflation to stagflation, and stagflation is the most obvious feature of the depression stage. Although the United States is good in terms of data (mainly unemployment rate), but I personally believe that 2021 is the starting point of the depression stage, and this needs to be verified in the future. Since the beginning of the interest rate hike cycle, the Nasdaq has fallen as low as around 10,500 and is currently around 13,600. In this round of interest rate hikes, Powell emphasized that the future inflation target will be lowered to 2%. The latest CPI in May is currently 4%, and the CPI in June is predicted to be 3.22%. The U.S. GDP will grow by 2% in the first quarter of 2023, and will be 2% in the fourth quarter of 2022. 2.6%. Raising interest rates is a means of regulating the economy, not a factor that affects the economic cycle. There are so many words listed above. Combined with the picture above, we can summarize it with a few points: when interest rates begin to rise, they often start with a decline. There is also the possibility of interest rate cuts when the economy is good, and interest rates are just tools. Raising interest rates does not necessarily mean falling. It depends on the economic cycle and macro-monetary environment we are in. In the process of raising interest rates in the past 30 years, multiple interest rate hikes in the U.S. stock market have produced good returns. Interest rates may not necessarily rise after the process of raising interest rates is over. In extreme cases, such as the Internet bubble and the subprime mortgage crisis, there is the possibility of a sharp plunge.The beginning of an interest rate cut does not mean an increase. Most of the time, an increase begins only after the interest rate cut ends. From the perspective of economic control methods, the phrase "raising interest rates will destroy valuations, and cutting interest rates will destroy fundamentals" is appropriate for operation and understanding. The reason for raising interest rates is because there is too much money in the market, so many projects are overvalued, and capital is clear, so they are the first to be abandoned after raising interest rates; the reason for cutting interest rates is to stimulate the economy, and sitting at this time It confirms the fact of "poor economy". Under the background of low liquidity, even targets with good fundamentals cannot escape this. Part Three: Summary It is difficult to predict the future. Historically, we have always moved forward with a mentality of crossing the river by touching stones. Looking back on past cycles, the bull market in the currency circle has always been inseparable from policy + liquidity + narrative. Three elements, none of which are currently met. In this regard, for those who want to achieve a class jump by relying on the currency circle, they must have a rich knowledge system and respond to the market with a long-term perspective. It is not advisable to carve a boat and seek a sword, but it is the last word to live a long time. This article only expands from the two dimensions of the halving cycle and the Fed's interest rate hikes. From the perspective of on-chain data, each round of narratives, and copycat performance, there will be opportunities to continue to explore in the future. Even if we are desperate, there will always be some similar impacts. The factors are worthy of reference. Speculate on the new rather than the old. Compared with most markets, this market still has huge room for imagination. Facing the next round of market conditions, based on past experience, there is not much we can refer to. In terms of time, the first is about 20 months from the start of interest rate cuts to the low point after the Internet bubble burst, and the second is about 18 months after the subprime mortgage crisis. If an extreme black swan event occurs next year and the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in an emergency, it is entirely possible to rebound the market. After all, there is a halving narrative, but whether it means a reversal may still need to be considered. Assuming a black swan occurs in February next year and rebounds near 18,000, then the bottom will most likely be in the fourth quarter of 2025. The price at that time may be lower than 15,000, but this does not mean that it can be held for a long time, because The major cycles we are in are different, so we cannot generalize, but if you want to take 10-20 years, there is a high probability that it will be no problem, because for ordinary people, the most difficult thing is the cost of time.Time selection, currency selection, and allocation are the basic order of investment. The key to making money depends on faith, not research. This belief includes the belief in currency selection, and also includes the belief in time selection. Making money in life depends on Kangbo. Extending the perspective does not mean that we waste our time in a way of looking for swords, but to maintain a prudent attitude, know what is happening and why, and observe ourselves from a broader perspective. position and understand your own behavior.