Analysis of the market on October 3, the daily level rebound of Bitcoin shows signs of ending, and the short-term focus is on the strength of the next 1h

五柳先生 · 2023-10-03T10:51:43.000Z

Share daily The market is always so funny. Whenever many people start to become FOMO, the market will teach these people a lesson. I have to say that the FOMO sentiment was so obvious yesterday. The social platforms I often visit include Zhihu, Weibo, and YouTube. I did some rough statistics. Yesterday, analysts on these platforms thought that "the bull market is coming" and "bit is about to go." Views such as "32,000 or more" accounted for more than 90%, and basically the entire network saw a huge surge. In addition, there are many retail investors who were relatively rational in the past. When they see a large number of KOLs unanimously bullish, they will basically join the KOL’s views unanimously. For example, a fan told me yesterday, "Sir, are you still short? Such and such big guys are too bullish. Is the trend reversed?"

Daily Share
The market is always so funny. Whenever many people start to fomo, the market will teach these people a lesson. I have to say that the fomo sentiment was too obvious yesterday. I personally often visit social platforms such as Zhihu, Weibo, and YouTube. I roughly counted that yesterday, the analysts on these platforms held views such as "the bull market is coming" and "Bitcoin is about to go above 32,000", accounting for more than 90%. Basically, the whole network is expecting a big surge.
In addition, many retail investors who were relatively rational before will basically join the KOLs’ opinions when they see a large number of KOLs unanimously bullish. For example, yesterday a fan told me, “Sir, are you still shorting? So-and-so is bullish, has the trend reversed?”
It is a good thing to refer to more opinions of KOLs, but don’t think that everything will be fine if you follow the opinions of the majority. The 80/20 rule means that most people will not make money.
Without further ado, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a 1h level pullback. According to yesterday's expectations, after this pullback is over, there will be a fifth 1h level rebound. The strength of the fifth rebound is more critical. If the strength cannot effectively stand above 29200, it can be basically considered that the 4h level rebound is over, and even the daily level may be over.
Judging from the current pullback strength, the lowest point in the early morning fell to 27281, so it is very likely that the rebound will not pass 28580, thus forming a second sell. In any case, I still insist that after the rebound of the daily level, the big cake will continue to fall below 24800, thus forming the third daily level decline, so just wait and see.
 
BTC
Due to the rapid changes in the short-term market, the article can only predict the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market and use it as a reference only.
1H：
At the 1h level, the current 1h level decline should not be over yet, and there is still a lack of a downward move at the sub-level. The lower side can focus on 27000. If it can stay above it, the next 1h level rebound should be able to go to around 28000 or the previous high. If 27000 cannot hold, the strength of the subsequent rebound is uncertain.
From the perspective of the 4h level rebound progress, the current 4h level rebound is about to end or has ended, and it is more appropriate to short at highs. It is expected that after the National Day Golden Week, there is a high probability that a daily level decline will begin.
 
15M：
At the 15-minute level, there has been a 15-minute level decline and a 15-minute level rebound. Currently, there is still a lack of the third 15-minute level decline. We can continue to pay attention to the area around 27000~27200 below.
 
ETH
Ethereum is currently also experiencing a 1h-level decline, which has not yet been completed, and there is still a lack of a 15-minute-level decline to 1630 or so. It is expected that there should be a chance for a 1h-level rebound tomorrow, and attention should be paid to the rebound strength. If the rebound cannot exceed 1750, it means that the overall 4h-level rebound and the daily-level rebound may be over. Thus, a new daily-level decline will begin, and the decline will be relatively large.
 
Trend Direction
Weekly level: Downward direction, weekly level is in the process of oscillating decline
Daily level: The direction is upward. The daily level rebound is coming to an end. Continue to pay attention to whether it has begun to turn around this week.
4-hour level: The direction is upward. If the next 1-hour level rebound cannot pass 28580, then the 4-hour level rebound will end. If it can reach 28580, then continue. The overall space above is not large, and I still insist that the rebound will not go far.
1-hour level: The direction is downward. The decline at the 1h level has not yet ended. Another retracement may end it. At that time, pay attention to the next 1h level rebound strength.
15-minute level: The direction is downward, there is another 15-minute level decline to be run, pay attention to 27100 below