📍Shocking retail data, hope for soft-landing scenario?

🔶A pleasant shock to the US economy as retail sales jumped 1.0% m/m (2.5 times the forecast of 0.4%). This report surprised even the most optimistic forecasters (this is the largest monthly retail growth since January 2023).

🔶Nearly all retail components increased, of which two-thirds of the sales growth came from autos due to the seasonal nature. The increase in retail sales was "supported" by the student start season and the decline in prices - two factors that pushed up demand for cars.

🔶The downward revision of June retail data also contributed to the higher m/m increase.

🔶Jobless claims continue to fall sharply:

- Last week, the US had only 227K unemployment claims (lower than the forecast of 236K)

- The number of people continuing to receive benefits decreased to 1.864M (lower than the forecast of 1.88M)

🔶Quite positive, but the possibility of the data being manipulated again and revised down next month cannot be ruled out. Soft-landing expectations are returning, the predicted rate of recession in 2024 is retreating. I still think the FED will only cut 25bsp next month.