The year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI slowed to 7.1% in November, lower than the expectations of all Wall Street investment banks. The data clearly shows the downward trend of inflation and the Fed's interest rate hike has worked.
Last night, traders updated their expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike plan:
1. Interest rate traders predict that the Fed's interest rate hike will be reduced to 25 basis points as early as February next year;
2. Traders also expect that interest rates will exceed the US inflation rate as early as March next year, when the CPI will reach around 4.4%, while the benchmark interest rate will be 4.8% (from historical performance, the premise for inflation to be finally controlled is that the inflation rate must be lower than the interest rate level)
3. The Fed will end the tightening cycle in May (swap traders price the Fed's policy rate peak of 4.85% in May, lower than 4.99% before the data was released), preparing for the final policy shift.