CPI Interpretation + Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Prediction
The CPI data for August was just released and it rebounded as expected.
It was said in last night’s live broadcast that there will be a rebound. Although the predictions made by major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan are in line with expectations, our view is a rebound. We mainly make predictions based on the data given by the Cleveland Fed. Although the market The fluctuations are not big, but as a macro analyst, this is a confirmation of my own judgment.
The main reason for the rebound in inflation is the rise in Brent oil prices. It has always been said that when oil prices rise, commodity prices will rise because of rising costs. Brent was still 80 US dollars in August, but now it is 90 US dollars. At the same time, The consumption data in August exceeded expectations, the slight increase in PCE, the slight recovery in manufacturing, and the increase in wages all paved the way for a general rebound.
If the CPI still rebounds in September, the Federal Reserve is bound to raise interest rates again. Although the interest rate hike is coming to an end, maintaining high interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet will also continue to increase pressure on market liquidity.
We proposed on August 2 that the S&P 500 prediction of 4,6K will most likely be the top of this year, and then there will be a correction. Looking back now, the judgment is still accurate. Tesla, Nvidia, Apple, etc. that everyone was optimistic about before now all have shareholders. Sell-off, a downward trend in prices.
Although we rarely participate in U.S. stocks, we must also accurately analyze macro trends in order to better grasp the crypto market and help improve the winning rate of opening orders. If we only look at the K-line, it is not enough in the current market. , the pants are easy to lose.
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