analysis

#Bitcoin is currently testing 69,000.
Market Outlook:
Bearish Scenario: A small reversal to the downside is possible from this level, with the first target near 68,500.
Bullish Scenario: If $BTC moves upward, 71,000 – 72,000 would be a perfect setup, with subsequent downside targets around 67,000, 66,000, 65,000, and 64,000 in the following days.
Additional Notes:
There’s a full volatility gap that the market is likely to fill.
Since the weekend is approaching, trading volume will be low, so big moves are expected to occur on Monday.

#BTC #Binance #crypto #analysis

$BTC
Complete Analysis – February 2026
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🔍 PART 1: WHY DID BITCOIN CRASH?
Contrary to popular belief, this recent drop is NOT a "crypto crisis." It's a traditional markets event in disguise.
🎯 THE TRUTH BEHIND THE FEBRUARY 5, 2026 CRASH
Jeff Park (CIO of Procap) proved that:
✅ This was NOT a crypto sell-off – It was a TradFi deleveraging event
✅ ETFs did NOT see outflows – IBIT recorded +$230M net creations and +$300M across all spot ETFs
✅ The culprit? The CME Bitcoin basis trade – Basis spreads surged from 3.3% to 9% in 24h, forcing hedge funds to massively unwind
✅ Context: Goldman Sachs called February 4th the "worst day for multi-strategy hedge funds in years" (z-score 3.5)
Translation: Crypto investors didn't sell. Traditional institutions reduced risk everywhere, and Bitcoin was caught in the crossfire.
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📋 THE 6 FACTORS BEHIND THE CORRECTION (According to Matt Hougan, Bitwise)
Hougan identifies 6 specific causes of the 90K → 70K drop:
Factor Detail
1. Front-running the cycle Long-term investors sold preemptively to avoid the statistical "bear year" (2014, 2018, 2022, 2026)
2. Attention rotation "Attention investors" rotated toward AI and precious metals
3. Giant liquidations Trump tariffs → largest leverage blowout in history
4. Hawkish Fed Kevin Warsh nomination, seen as the most restrictive candidate
5. Quantum fear Concerns over Bitcoin's unpreparedness for quantum computing
6. Macro risk-off Gold -4%, Silver -20%, Tech stocks falling
But Hougan's conclusion is clear: "Much of the bad news is already priced in."
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⚠️ OTHER CONFIRMED PRESSURES
Standard Chartered (Geoffrey Kendrick):
· ETF investors are sitting on unrealized losses
· 100,000 BTC have left ETFs since October 2025 peak
· Forecast: Test of $50,000 before recovery
On-chain data (XWIN Research/CryptoQuant):
· BTC dropped 46% from $126,000 peak
· $13B in net realized losses – comparable to worst of 2022
· 5 consecutive months of decline – a streak unseen since 2018
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📈 PART 2: HOW TO ANTICIPATE THE NEXT BULL RUN
Good news: All historical "bear end" signals are now aligning.
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🟢 SIGNAL #1: 30 TOP INDICATORS – ZERO TRIGGERED
The MOST IMPORTANT analysis right now:
A trader who has followed 3 complete cycles analyzed 30 bull run top indicators (MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, NUPL, AHR999, etc.).
Result: 0/30 are activated.
Indicator Current Top Zone
AHR999 Index 1.16 4
MVRV Z-Score 2.5 7–10
BTC Dominance 58% < 40%
Fear & Greed Not extreme Extreme greed
Rainbow Chart Green Red
Conclusion: "We are NOT in the top phase. We are in the ACCUMULATION phase before the final acceleration."
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🟢 SIGNAL #2: RAREFIED CONFLUENCE – NETWORK GROWTH + RISK INDEX
Bitcoin Vector (institutional):
Two key indicators are aligning for the first time in years:
1. Network Growth
2. Risk Index
Their convergence HISTORICALLY precedes the biggest rallies.
"The market is becoming more balanced. Network activity now exceeds risk signals."
Add to this a bullish RSI divergence, and the setup for a return to $95,000 is in place.
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🟢 SIGNAL #3: OVERSOLD RSI – FIVE TIMES TESTED, FIVE TIMES BOUNCED
Julien Bittel (Global Macro Investor):
Every time RSI dropped below 30 since 2023, Bitcoin bounced strongly.
This happened 5 times. 5 rebounds.
Projection: If the pattern repeats, $170,000 in 3 months is a plausible scenario.
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🟢 SIGNAL #4: GLASSNODE – SELLING PRESSURE EXHAUSTING
Glassnode data, January 2026:
✅ Long-term holder profit-taking – nearly complete
✅ ETF flows – turned positive again
✅ Open interest – moderate rebuilding, no leverage excess
✅ Options – record expiration, 45% of Open Interest cleared
The bottleneck? Massive resistance between $92,000 and $117,000, where thousands of recent buyers are at breakeven.
The key level: Short-term holder cost basis at $99,000. Return above = restored confidence.
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🟢 SIGNAL #5: THE HALVING CYCLE IS FADING – INSTITUTIONALS TAKING OVER
Bitwise (Matt Hougan):
Paradigm shift.
· Before: Halving → Mechanical bull run
· Now: Institutional flows (ETFs, corporate treasuries) dictate the trend
Consequence:
· Less "parabolic pump followed by crash"
· More "stable, sustained growth"
· 2026 becomes the pivot year where Bitcoin establishes itself as a macro asset
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🟢 SIGNAL #6: MACRO – GLOBAL LIQUIDITY EXPANDING
Global M2 money supply: Rising.
Fed & central banks: Rate cut cycle has begun.
History: 2009, 2016, 2020 – every time global liquidity rebounds, Bitcoin follows parabolically.
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🧭 PART 3: KEY LEVELS TO WATCH FOR RECOVERY
🔴 CRITICAL SUPPORTS (MUST HOLD)
Level Significance
$65,000 Psychological support & 10-year realized price
$60,000 Massive whale buying zone
$50,000 Standard Chartered worst-case scenario
🟢 RESISTANCES TO BREAK
Level Significance
$66,688 Bollinger Mid – first signal
$70,000 Psychological – retail confidence returns
$95,000 Immediate technical target
$99,000 STH cost basis – ALPHA level
$117,000+ New ATHs
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📋 CHECKLIST TO ANTICIPATE THE BULL RUN
✅ WHAT I WATCH EVERY DAY
1. ETF Flow – Sustained inflows = institutions returning
2. BTC Dominance – Break below 50% = altcoin season
3. CME Basis – Sign of basis trade returning
4. RSI 1H/4H – Bullish divergence = hidden momentum
5. Realized Losses – When they dry up, bottom is near
✅ THE ULTIMATE INDICATOR (IN MY VIEW)
As long as the 30 top indicators remain green, there is NO reason to exit.
The real sell signal will be:
· BTC.D < 40%
· MVRV > 7
· Fear & Greed > 90
· Massive ETF outflows
· Your parents talking about crypto
None of this has happened.
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🧠 CONCLUSION
Why did BTC crash?
➤ A perfect TradFi storm: deleveraging, hedge funds, basis trades, and macro rotation.
This was NOT a crypto crisis.
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How to anticipate the bull run?
➤ The data is clear:
✅ 30 top indicators – 0 activated
✅ Oversold RSI – 5/5 historical rebounds
✅ Network Growth + Risk Index – rare confluence
✅ Glassnode – selling exhausted
✅ Bitwise – institutional paradigm shift
✅ Macro – global liquidity rising
This is not the time to panic.
This is the time to accumulate, watch key levels, and patiently wait for the next catalyst.
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#bitcoin #BTC走势分析 #Bullrun #analysis #ETFsApproval #Institutional #Capitulation #BinanceSquare #February2026
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📊 Sources: Procap, Bitwise, Glassnode, Standard Chartered, CryptoQuant, Global Macro Investor, Bitcoin Vector – DYOR – NFA$BNB