analysis

4 Steps to Spot a New Bull Cycle in any Stock

I spent years thinking that investing success required deep financial knowledge. After working in investment banking and earning complex finance certifications and a masters degree I assure you it does not. Finance is important but it's just part of the solution.

The market runs on probabilities.

The goal is to find companies with much to gain and very little to lose.

Today we will cover how to identify when a company is ending its bearish cycle to begin a powerful new bullish cycle.

📉 Cycle Endings

To detect a cycle ending we must evaluate 4 KEY factors.

A clear prior downtrend exists.
The company has solid prospects or interesting turnaround options despite recent struggles. Avoid extreme cases or frauds.
The price establishes a bottom in a logical zone. Previous volume existed there creating a new support level.
A bullish pattern emerges.

Let us look at Moderna as an example

MRNA Real Time example:

1. Clear prior downtrend

The chart speaks for itself. Since mid 2021 Moderna has fallen steadily wiping out almost 95% of its stock market value.

2. The company has good prospects

Only 2 out of 11 analysts covering the stock are pessimistic.

Most rate it a hold with little upside expected right now. In 2026 we will see a cancer therapy in partnership with Merck which could act as a massive catalyst. Additional improvements include widely used vaccines aggressive cost reductions and a promising high margin rare disease pipeline. All these factors lay the groundwork for a potential turnaround this year.

3. The price establishes a significant bottom

The market has started to price in these developments. We saw a 150% rally over 3 months before the current correction. This was driven primarily by Phase 3 results for the Merck partnered cancer treatment. These results validate their mRNA technology for non infectious applications and could revolutionize cancer treatments. Their combined flu and COVID vaccine also received approval.

Beyond these fundamental successes heavy short interest betting on bankruptcy triggered a short squeeze forcing bears to cover their positions.

The $23 support level was crucial. Nobody managed to break the original 2019 IPO price.

4. A bullish pattern emerges

After dropping 95% and finding support at the IPO price the stock formed a Multiple Bottom demonstrating the strength of the floor and cleanly breaking the $35 resistance zone.

That breakout sent the price surging to the $55 level where historical resistance pushed it back down to $35.

This created a great entry opportunity in the pullback. By placing a tight Stop Loss just inside the Multiple Bottom we can target a 50% short term profit and much larger medium term gains.

🤔 Great but, Is this the first time this has happened?

Of course not. We have seen the exact same setup on many other occasions like GROY :

FSS

OR DOCU

These patterns carry a very high probability of success. They usually offer a risk to reward ratio of at least 3 to 1. You must trust your tight Stop Loss and never risk more capital than necessary.

Have you spotted any other stock that could be now in the bottom of the cycle? Would love to read you in comments!
#LearningTogether #TrendingTopic #analysis

#Bitcoin is currently testing 69,000.
Market Outlook:
Bearish Scenario: A small reversal to the downside is possible from this level, with the first target near 68,500.
Bullish Scenario: If $BTC moves upward, 71,000 – 72,000 would be a perfect setup, with subsequent downside targets around 67,000, 66,000, 65,000, and 64,000 in the following days.
Additional Notes:
There’s a full volatility gap that the market is likely to fill.
Since the weekend is approaching, trading volume will be low, so big moves are expected to occur on Monday.

#BTC #Binance #crypto #analysis

$BTC
Complete Analysis – February 2026
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🔍 PART 1: WHY DID BITCOIN CRASH?
Contrary to popular belief, this recent drop is NOT a "crypto crisis." It's a traditional markets event in disguise.
🎯 THE TRUTH BEHIND THE FEBRUARY 5, 2026 CRASH
Jeff Park (CIO of Procap) proved that:
✅ This was NOT a crypto sell-off – It was a TradFi deleveraging event
✅ ETFs did NOT see outflows – IBIT recorded +$230M net creations and +$300M across all spot ETFs
✅ The culprit? The CME Bitcoin basis trade – Basis spreads surged from 3.3% to 9% in 24h, forcing hedge funds to massively unwind
✅ Context: Goldman Sachs called February 4th the "worst day for multi-strategy hedge funds in years" (z-score 3.5)
Translation: Crypto investors didn't sell. Traditional institutions reduced risk everywhere, and Bitcoin was caught in the crossfire.
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📋 THE 6 FACTORS BEHIND THE CORRECTION (According to Matt Hougan, Bitwise)
Hougan identifies 6 specific causes of the 90K → 70K drop:
Factor Detail
1. Front-running the cycle Long-term investors sold preemptively to avoid the statistical "bear year" (2014, 2018, 2022, 2026)
2. Attention rotation "Attention investors" rotated toward AI and precious metals
3. Giant liquidations Trump tariffs → largest leverage blowout in history
4. Hawkish Fed Kevin Warsh nomination, seen as the most restrictive candidate
5. Quantum fear Concerns over Bitcoin's unpreparedness for quantum computing
6. Macro risk-off Gold -4%, Silver -20%, Tech stocks falling
But Hougan's conclusion is clear: "Much of the bad news is already priced in."
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⚠️ OTHER CONFIRMED PRESSURES
Standard Chartered (Geoffrey Kendrick):
· ETF investors are sitting on unrealized losses
· 100,000 BTC have left ETFs since October 2025 peak
· Forecast: Test of $50,000 before recovery
On-chain data (XWIN Research/CryptoQuant):
· BTC dropped 46% from $126,000 peak
· $13B in net realized losses – comparable to worst of 2022
· 5 consecutive months of decline – a streak unseen since 2018
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📈 PART 2: HOW TO ANTICIPATE THE NEXT BULL RUN
Good news: All historical "bear end" signals are now aligning.
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🟢 SIGNAL #1: 30 TOP INDICATORS – ZERO TRIGGERED
The MOST IMPORTANT analysis right now:
A trader who has followed 3 complete cycles analyzed 30 bull run top indicators (MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, NUPL, AHR999, etc.).
Result: 0/30 are activated.
Indicator Current Top Zone
AHR999 Index 1.16 4
MVRV Z-Score 2.5 7–10
BTC Dominance 58% < 40%
Fear & Greed Not extreme Extreme greed
Rainbow Chart Green Red
Conclusion: "We are NOT in the top phase. We are in the ACCUMULATION phase before the final acceleration."
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🟢 SIGNAL #2: RAREFIED CONFLUENCE – NETWORK GROWTH + RISK INDEX
Bitcoin Vector (institutional):
Two key indicators are aligning for the first time in years:
1. Network Growth
2. Risk Index
Their convergence HISTORICALLY precedes the biggest rallies.
"The market is becoming more balanced. Network activity now exceeds risk signals."
Add to this a bullish RSI divergence, and the setup for a return to $95,000 is in place.
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🟢 SIGNAL #3: OVERSOLD RSI – FIVE TIMES TESTED, FIVE TIMES BOUNCED
Julien Bittel (Global Macro Investor):
Every time RSI dropped below 30 since 2023, Bitcoin bounced strongly.
This happened 5 times. 5 rebounds.
Projection: If the pattern repeats, $170,000 in 3 months is a plausible scenario.
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🟢 SIGNAL #4: GLASSNODE – SELLING PRESSURE EXHAUSTING
Glassnode data, January 2026:
✅ Long-term holder profit-taking – nearly complete
✅ ETF flows – turned positive again
✅ Open interest – moderate rebuilding, no leverage excess
✅ Options – record expiration, 45% of Open Interest cleared
The bottleneck? Massive resistance between $92,000 and $117,000, where thousands of recent buyers are at breakeven.
The key level: Short-term holder cost basis at $99,000. Return above = restored confidence.
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🟢 SIGNAL #5: THE HALVING CYCLE IS FADING – INSTITUTIONALS TAKING OVER
Bitwise (Matt Hougan):
Paradigm shift.
· Before: Halving → Mechanical bull run
· Now: Institutional flows (ETFs, corporate treasuries) dictate the trend
Consequence:
· Less "parabolic pump followed by crash"
· More "stable, sustained growth"
· 2026 becomes the pivot year where Bitcoin establishes itself as a macro asset
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🟢 SIGNAL #6: MACRO – GLOBAL LIQUIDITY EXPANDING
Global M2 money supply: Rising.
Fed & central banks: Rate cut cycle has begun.
History: 2009, 2016, 2020 – every time global liquidity rebounds, Bitcoin follows parabolically.
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🧭 PART 3: KEY LEVELS TO WATCH FOR RECOVERY
🔴 CRITICAL SUPPORTS (MUST HOLD)
Level Significance
$65,000 Psychological support & 10-year realized price
$60,000 Massive whale buying zone
$50,000 Standard Chartered worst-case scenario
🟢 RESISTANCES TO BREAK
Level Significance
$66,688 Bollinger Mid – first signal
$70,000 Psychological – retail confidence returns
$95,000 Immediate technical target
$99,000 STH cost basis – ALPHA level
$117,000+ New ATHs
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📋 CHECKLIST TO ANTICIPATE THE BULL RUN
✅ WHAT I WATCH EVERY DAY
1. ETF Flow – Sustained inflows = institutions returning
2. BTC Dominance – Break below 50% = altcoin season
3. CME Basis – Sign of basis trade returning
4. RSI 1H/4H – Bullish divergence = hidden momentum
5. Realized Losses – When they dry up, bottom is near
✅ THE ULTIMATE INDICATOR (IN MY VIEW)
As long as the 30 top indicators remain green, there is NO reason to exit.
The real sell signal will be:
· BTC.D < 40%
· MVRV > 7
· Fear & Greed > 90
· Massive ETF outflows
· Your parents talking about crypto
None of this has happened.
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🧠 CONCLUSION
Why did BTC crash?
➤ A perfect TradFi storm: deleveraging, hedge funds, basis trades, and macro rotation.
This was NOT a crypto crisis.
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How to anticipate the bull run?
➤ The data is clear:
✅ 30 top indicators – 0 activated
✅ Oversold RSI – 5/5 historical rebounds
✅ Network Growth + Risk Index – rare confluence
✅ Glassnode – selling exhausted
✅ Bitwise – institutional paradigm shift
✅ Macro – global liquidity rising
This is not the time to panic.
This is the time to accumulate, watch key levels, and patiently wait for the next catalyst.
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#bitcoin #BTC走势分析 #Bullrun #analysis #ETFsApproval #Institutional #Capitulation #BinanceSquare #February2026
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📊 Sources: Procap, Bitwise, Glassnode, Standard Chartered, CryptoQuant, Global Macro Investor, Bitcoin Vector – DYOR – NFA$BNB