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📉 Is Bitcoin's bottom not over yet? Amberdata: The real 'final washout' has not yet arrived
Recently, Bitcoin has fallen to the $60,000 mark, causing many investors to feel anxious, but Amberdata's derivatives manager Greg Magadini believes that the true market bottom may not have appeared yet. His reasoning is simple: there are currently no signs of 'capitulation' from investors.
🔍 Signals revealed by the futures basis
Magadini focused on the price difference (basis) between futures and spot:
Historical pattern: At the true bottom of a bear market, futures usually trade at a significant discount to the spot price. This is because, at that time, the market is in extreme panic, and investors sell contracts recklessly. Current situation: The basis for 90-day futures contracts remains around 4%. This is only equivalent to the risk-free yield of U.S. Treasuries, indicating that market sentiment is still 'calm' and there is no sense of despair typical of a bottoming situation. Comparison to 2022: When BTC bottomed below $20,000 that year, futures discounts once reached 9%.
Expert conclusion: The current market structure suggests that there may be another wave of downward pressure to cleanse the bulls before the final reversal arrives.
🇺🇸 Is U.S. buying returning?
Although futures data is somewhat cold, there is a hint of warmth on the spot side. The Coinbase Premium Index is rebounding:
During the most severe panic selling period, this index once fell to -0.22%. As of February 10, the index has risen to -0.05%.
This indicates that U.S. institutional investors and whales are starting to 'catch falling knives' around $60,000, and this buying support has slowed the decline.
💡 Trader's Notes
The market is currently in a game of dynamics: on one side is the institutional support from the U.S. market, and on the other side is the unfinished 'final liquidation' in the derivatives market.
Operational thought: Focus on the psychological level of $60,000. If the futures basis turns negative (inverted market) in the coming days, that may be a true signal for major buying.
Do you think this wave is a direct rebound, or will there be 'one last drop'? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! 👇
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