NFLX operating margin hits 34.6%, but the stock is hugging its 52-week low
Guys, Netflix’s earnings report had me laughing. I’m not catching this falling knife.
The Q3 earnings report came out after the market closed on October 20: EPS was $0.87, beating expectations of $0.82; revenue was $12.87 billion, in line with expectations; net income was $3.66 billion, up 44% year over year; and operating margin climbed to 34.6%, versus just 28.2% in the same quarter last year.
In plain English, they raked it in this quarter.
So what happened? The stock got slammed 5% to 7% after hours, dropping to around $65 and hugging its 52-week low.
Earnings beat expectations, but the stock gets hammered. I know this script: the market doesn’t care how much you made this quarter. It wants to know if you’ll have another story to tell next quarter.
First, let’s be fair and look at the bull case.
It really isn’t expensive now: the stock is down more than 40% over the past year, the company bought back $4.8 billion worth of shares—its biggest buyback ever—and with those margins and cash flows, streaming is still a cash cow.
At $65, it’s near the bottom of its 52-week range, so the brave might say sentiment has overshot to the downside.
But I think the bear case stings more.
Growth was 11.8%, its slowest in nearly three years. Q4 guidance called for $13.44 billion in revenue and EPS of $0.67, both below expectations. The full-year ad revenue target was cut from $3 billion to $2.7 billion—that growth engine just got its wings clipped by 10%.
And don’t forget, just two weeks before earnings, Netflix laid off 1,000 people (6% of its workforce), replacing both its content chief and its film head. Add the failed $83 billion Warner Bros. acquisition to the mix: there’s no new story to tell, while YouTube and TikTok are stealing attention from the old one.
Let me be blunt: I’m siding with the bears.
When even an earnings report that beats expectations can’t save the stock, it means the bulls have fired their last shot. I’m not jumping into this hole.
Here are the key price levels: $68.70 was the closing price before earnings. Getting back above $68.70 would count as a win for the bulls; above that, watch $69.10 (the 24-hour high).
$63.75 was the after-hours low. If the stock breaks below $63.75, it’s really headed for its previous lows—it could even lose that $65 52-week floor.
I’m sitting this one out. I can’t bring myself to buy at this level. First, let’s see if it can hold $65.
Tomorrow morning, it’s Tesla’s turn to report earnings. If Tesla also pulls an “earnings beat, stock gets crushed,” then this whole U.S. earnings season is turning into a valuation-crushing game. Buckle up, guys.
Is this a golden opportunity or a real trap? Will it hold $65 and bounce back to $68.70, or break below $63.75 and keep falling?
I’ll say where I stand: I’m leaning toward the latter. Catching the bottom isn’t for me. What about you?
$NFLX $TSLA $SPCX #Netflix #U.S.Stocks