If there is no rapid selling pressure, there may be a trend in the next 1-2 months.
From September 25 to October 1, the highest price of #BTC was around 28,430 USD and the lowest price was close to 25,990 USD, with a fluctuation range of about 9.39%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 26,770 USD, which will provide certain support or pressure.
• analyze:
1. 26000-31000, approximately 4.16 million pieces;
2. 20000~25000, about 1.8 million pieces;
• The probability that the price will not fall below 24,000~26,000 in the short term is 79%;
• The probability that the price will not break through 32,000-34,000 in the short term is 65%.
Important news
Economic news
1. Lloyd Blankfein, former CEO of Goldman Sachs, said: The interest rate of 5.5% is too high, the inflation rate may be below 3%, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates earlier than expected, and a recession is still unlikely.
2. Goldman Sachs believes that the Fed will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points next year, while Bank of America believes it will be 50-75 basis points; JPMorgan Chase believes it will be cut by 80 basis points; and Morgan Stanley believes it will be cut by 100 basis points.
3. Interest rate futures contracts show that there is about a 50% chance that the Fed will further tighten its policy for the rest of the year, with interest rates set to fall to 4.65% by the end of next year, a cut of 85 basis points.
4. Citi said that the liquidity depletion in the financing market has basically ended, and the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase (RRP) tool will offset or even exceed the scale of bond issuance by the U.S. Treasury, thereby increasing liquidity.
5. The scale of use of the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase tool has dropped to 14.28 trillion US dollars, and is expected to drop to around 1 trillion US dollars by the end of the year, injecting liquidity into the market. Crypto ecosystem news 1. The weekly trading volume of the top trading platform fell below 400 billion US dollars again last week 2. MicroStrategy purchased 5,445 bitcoins for US$147 million 3. Binance Japan has reached a cooperation with Mitsubishi UFJ Trust Bank and plans to issue a Japanese yen stablecoin by the end of 2024 4. Binance sold its business in Russia to CommEX 5. Global payment processing giant MoneyGram will launch a non-custodial crypto wallet
6. The U.S. SEC postpones the decision time for VanEck and Ark 21Shares spot Ethereum ETFs, but will accelerate the launch of Ethereum futures ETFs
7. Crypto trading platform Kraken plans to provide stock trading services in the UK and the US
8. Bernstein, a long-established Wall Street asset management company, reported in a research report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will not "fabricate another reason for rejection" for the BTC spot ETF, but will take a middle route and accept a supervisory agreement with Coinbase.
9. The Federal Reserve released a report titled “Tokenization: Overview and Financial Stability Implications”, which aims to provide background on tokenization and discuss its potential benefits as well as financial stability risks.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain conditions.
Long-term insights
• On-chain spot selling pressure
• Trading platform headcount status (see the on-chain spot selling pressure in the figure below)
Spot selling pressure reached an 8-year low.
Currently, there is very little selling pressure on the spot market, which has reached the lowest stage in history. The market pressure is the easiest in 8 years. It is so easy that only a little purchasing power is needed to squeeze the market upward.
(The following figure shows the status of the trading platform head)
Participants are still actively hoarding coins, but the corresponding frequency and amount of hoarding have begun to decline.
The amount of coins on the trading platform is also at its lowest level in several years.
The active hoarding behavior has occurred in the last two months.
The current market has reached the lowest point of selling pressure in eight years, and buying and hoarding are still proceeding silently.
If the market remains like this, an upward squeeze may occur in the next 1-2 quarters.
Mid-term exploration
• Short-term profit percentage compounding model
• Ratio of long-term to short-term participants
• Futures leverage ratio of trading platforms
• Trading platform trend net position
• Network sentiment positivity
• Purchasing power differential
(The figure below shows the short-term profit percentage compound model)
From the medium-term perspective, short-term participants are in a relatively hesitant position, and the direction of increase or decrease is not very clear, but overall, the pace of reduction has been temporarily stopped at this stage. It is possible that in the constant baptism, the mid-term rhythm of the market has temporarily stabilized.
The accumulation group is still growing, the current pace of coin hoarding remains unchanged, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals remain relatively positive.
However, the growth rate has slowed down, and the overall rhythm may also be adjusted. The market as a whole needs time to gain more space.
Therefore, the problem of liquidity loss has been temporarily alleviated in the short term.
(The figure below shows the ratio of long-term to short-term participants)
From the perspective of the proportion of participants, the proportion of participants with a holding period of 6 months to 2 years is currently greater than that of participants with a holding period of 1 to 3 months.
Perhaps the overall tone has returned to a relatively conservative level, with the proportion of longer-term participants increasing and short-term participants disappearing.
Of course, the reaction in the market needs to take into account the selling pressure.
Take a closer look at the changes in the balance of the on-site trading platform.
(The following figure shows the trend of net positions on the trading platform)
In the trend net position, the current situation is still in a relatively weak accumulation state, and may still be in a slower accumulation state overall.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
On-chain activity is still growing at a slower pace, and a relative medium-term trend may be forming.
If the current trend does not encounter significant selling pressure in the medium term, or rapid selling pressure due to reduced liquidity, the secondary market may perform better in the next 1-2 months.
(Purchasing power differential in the figure below)
Purchasing power has weakened slightly, which may have some impact in the near future.
Considering the overall enthusiasm on the chain, the buyer's power may be relatively weakened at present, but there is still a certain degree of activity overall.
Short term observation
• Derivatives Risk Factor
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option Implied Volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• Net position of Sugar Orange Trading Platform
• Net position of Yitai trading platform
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin trading platform net position
• Off-chain trading platform data
Derivatives rating: Risk factor is in the danger zone, risk is increasing
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
As prices rise, the risk factor has also fallen back to the danger zone.
Although the current price may have limited room to continue to rise if we only look at the risk factor, since there is no large-scale short squeeze at present, even if the risk of derivatives increases, it is still possible for the price to continue to break through and form a large-scale short squeeze.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
The option trading volume has dropped significantly, and the put option ratio has dropped moderately compared with last week and is currently at a medium level.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Although the price has risen, the current derivatives trading volume has not fluctuated much and is still at a low level, indicating that most derivatives traders are currently in a wait-and-see state.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Option implied volatility rose slightly and option traders' activity increased slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
In the past few weeks, market sentiment has been neutral to cold.
This week, the positive sentiment in the market has risen slightly as prices have risen, but panic sentiment remains at a low level.
The current price has reached the cost range of short-term holders. This week, we will continue to focus on the market panic represented by the loss transfer volume.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
This week, the number of new addresses dropped significantly, and the number of active addresses also dropped slightly.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: The overall outflow is accumulated and the selling pressure is low.
(The following figure shows the net position of the Bingtang Orange trading platform)
The big cake is currently in a state of small outflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai trading platform)
E is currently in a state of slight inflow.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power has also recovered slightly.
(Figure below: Global purchasing power status)
Currently, purchasing power in the three continents has rebounded, with Asia's purchasing power rebounding the most.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC trading platform)
USDC is currently experiencing a small inflow.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDT trading platform)
USDT is currently experiencing a small inflow.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 26,000; there is a willingness to sell at 30,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 23000, 24000, and 25000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 30000, 31000, and 32000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 24000, 25000, and 26000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 28000, 29000, 30000 and 31000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data below)
There is willingness to buy at prices around 24,000 and 25,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 30,500.
Summary of the news:
1. The current scale of the crypto fund management industry is approximately US$45-50 billion. In the future, with the approval of ETFs, capital expectations, etc., it will be able to exceed US$500 billion within five years. These demands will come from investment advisors, wealth and private banking products, as well as the ability to easily access BTCETFs in direct brokerage accounts.
2. It will indirectly create a leverage amplification effect of two to three times, which means that there will be room for capital inflows to expand the current market value by 2-3 times.
3. In terms of encryption policy, reports released by European and American countries, such as the Federal Reserve, are actively building and laying the foundation for the encryption policy environment.
Technology side:
The tide of the times has also reached a turning point, with technology companies led by Open Ai driving industrial development.
In a century, few individuals or corporate organizations can directly promote the development of industries and times. This is quite a great feat.
With the latest grayscale test of the GPT4 small v visual version being revealed to have completed training in 2022, we can basically expect the multimodal support of GPT5 (perhaps with other names) within the next year.
It may change auxiliary creation in education, engineering, sports rehabilitation, design and painting, and other fields.
At the same time, Apple's AR will be released within a year, and the encrypted ETF is likely to be approved with a high probability.
If WEB3 changes the world's new financial order and organizational form, then AI and AR change the world's new way of generation and interaction.
The prototype of all this will come in the next 1-5 years.
At the same time, on the financial economy side, as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next year and the year after, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will turn and decline, and the anchor of asset pricing will also change again.
The market style will face a re-transformation.
You have your plans, the world has others.
The future may witness the birth of a new era and the beginning of new history.
Long-term insights on the chain:
1. The spot selling pressure in the market has reached the lowest point in 8 years;
2. The hoarding behavior and potential purchasing power have continued to advance quietly over the past two months.
• Market setting: The current selling pressure in the market is very low, and only very slight buying volume is needed to push the market up.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
1. Short-term participants enter the hovering (non-churn) stage, and the pressure of short-term liquidity may be temporarily relieved.
2. The current pace has slowed down, and the proportion of long-term participants has increased relative to short-term participants.
3. The market is still in a weak accumulation state.
4. On-chain activity is slowly increasing.
5. Purchasing power is relatively weakened.
• Market setting tone:
Slow
On-chain activity has increased in the medium term, but the pace is slow and purchasing power needs to be restored.
At the same time, if there is no rapid selling pressure, there may be a trend in the next 1-2 months.
On-chain short-term observations:
1. The risk factor is in the danger zone and the risk is increasing.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is at a median level, and the on-chain activity is average.
3. Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
4. The net position of the trading platform as a whole shows an outflow accumulation state, and the selling pressure is relatively low.
5. Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power has also recovered slightly.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 26,000 and a willingness to sell at the price of 30,000.
7. The probability that the price will not fall below 24,000-26,000 in the short term is 79%; the probability that the price will not rise below 32,000-34,000 in the short term is 65%.
• Market setting tone:
Market sentiment is neutral, changing from the previous cold tone. Short-term market positive sentiment has increased slightly.
Strategic recommendations:
Wait for the price to rise further before dynamic spot hedging
Risk Warning: The above are market discussions and explorations and do not have any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.
