Friday's weekly close put the 10-year at 5.24%, two basis points below the 5.26% close of June 2007. Below, but not by a margin that amounts to acceptance. It has since traded down to 5.19% and is back near 5.22% today.
Tomorrow's CPI is the next input, and it is mostly an energy print. Consensus looks for headline inflation near 3.7%, up from 3.4% in August, with core expected to stay close to 2.4%. In August, gasoline was up 27% on the year and energy explained most of the gap between the two. Brent is back above $105, with tanker disruption in the Red Sea.
That gap is what to read tomorrow. A headline jump with core near 2.4% would leave the case for further tightening resting on energy, a supply shock that higher rates do little to address. A core surprise would change that reading. Markets still price a December hike as more likely than not.
For the 10-year, the reference is unchanged. A second weekly close below 5.26% would turn the 2007 level into resistance. Acceptance back above it puts last week's 5.35–5.36% highs back in view.
Bitcoin
On Thursday
$BTC lost 84,047, the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the October 2025 high to the July low. From the 80,350 low it has recovered to 83,500, back at the lower edge of the 83–87k zone we published on 3 September and just beneath 84,047.
The level we lost is being retested from below, one day before CPI. A retest is not acceptance. Acceptance back above 84,047 would put the zone back in play; rejection here keeps 74,136, the 23.6% retracement, as the next reference. Acceptance above 87k is still what changes the structure.
Positioning
The book is close to balanced. The BTC short remains open against longs in
$XLM and $HBAR; HBAR was added on overnight weakness. Disclosure: the BTC short was held while writing the above. The zone and its invalidation were published on 3 September, before the position.
Open positions and full trade history since inception:
app.binance.com/uni-qr/cpro/CapitalFlowTechLevels and invalidations, not calls. Not financial advice.
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