夏木KRIS

$57,800
Perhaps this is the bottom of the current $BTC Bitcoin bear market

Looking back now, I’m increasingly convinced that around $57,800 may be the true bottom of this BTC bear market.
At the end of June, Bitcoin was driven down to about $57,800, setting a new 21-month low. At the time, the environment was actually very poor: the Fed was leaning hawkish, and ETF flows were continuing to bleed out. Just the withdrawals in June alone totaled tens of billions of dollars, and market sentiment had already been crushed into extreme pessimism.

But with so many bearish factors, BTC still didn’t keep collapsing.
Now Bitcoin has rebounded all the way from $57,800. Today, it even briefly broke above $79,000—an upside rally of more than 36% from the lows. At the same time, ETF capital has started flowing back in again, and regulatory expectations are beginning to turn more favorable.

So now I’m going to start treating $57,800 as a very important level.

The bottom of a bear market is often something that falls out—only after some time do people realize: the lowest point was already behind us long ago.

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

$ZEC has returned to $1,200
The speed of this rebound is faster than I expected.

Earlier, when $ZEC dropped back from above $1,240, I said that $1,130–$1,150 was the price range I was willing to re-enter.

Today, it briefly dipped to around $1,115, and then the price pulled back up to $1,200 again—meaning this pullback was quickly absorbed by buyers. Different data sources update at different times; currently the aggregated quotes are still around $1,150, but the intraday high has already been recorded at $1,204.

More importantly, ZCSH now isn’t limited to spot ETFs anymore. As of September 8, options trading has been officially added. This means that the tools for traditional capital to participate in ZEC have gained another layer—from simply buying ETFs to extending into options pricing and risk management.

As of September 7, ZCSH’s net assets have reached about $463 million. Meanwhile, the ZEC network’s hashrate also rose earlier—from roughly 25 GSol/s at the end of August to above 30 GSol/s. There have been real changes on both the capital side and the miner side.

So when I was willing to buy at $1,130–$1,150 earlier, it wasn’t just a belief that “it fell enough to rebound.”

What I’m truly betting on is that this round of re-pricing for ZEC hasn’t finished yet.

After reclaiming $1,200, I’ll continue to watch how it digests the previous high area around $1,240–$1,250. As long as the bigger $1,000 level isn’t lost, my long-term view on ZEC hasn’t changed—for now.

$BTC has now returned to around $78,000. After pulling back from last week’s high of $82,164, things on the short-term chart do indeed look ugly, but I don’t think we’ve reached the point where the structure needs to be broken or judged as damaged.

What I’m really focused on now is $76,000.

Before this round of上涨, $BTC had already completed a clear transfer of positions around $76,000. Strategy’s current overall average cost for its holdings is also already at $75,412 across 845,000 BTC. In other words, the $75,000–$76,000 area isn’t just a technical level—it’s also a very important cost zone for the market right now.

Now macro pressure definitely exists. Oil prices are moving back toward $100, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is around 4.8%, and the market’s pricing for a rate hike in September has risen again to nearly 60%. In this kind of environment, a pullback of BTC from $82,000 is, in my view, completely understandable.

So my assessment is very simple:

As long as $BTC can hold steady above $76,000, I don’t think there’s much of a problem.

Short-term back-and-forth consolidation between $78,000 and $80,000 is acceptable. What would make me re-evaluate this current move isn’t normal fluctuations of a few thousand dollars—it’s a meaningful breakdown and effective drop below $76,000.

$SOL is currently about $103–104. After dropping to around $97 near the beginning of the month, it has now reclaimed the $100 level again.

I’ve continued to watch SOL for a very specific reason: Alpenglow is getting closer and closer to the mainnet launch stage.

Based on the current mainnet upgrade progress for Agave 4.3, Alpenglow is expected to enter the activation process starting September 28. It’s not simply stacking more TPS—it directly changes Solana’s consensus mechanism, with the goal of pushing finality down to sub-second levels.

For $SOL , I think the significance of this is more important than just another Meme hotspot.

One of Solana’s biggest past issues is that while performance is high, during periods of heavy load the stability and finality/confirmation experience still needed ongoing improvement. If Alpenglow ultimately runs according to its design, then Solana is actually continuing to strengthen the most core part of its infrastructure.

So around $100, I’m still leaning bullish.

I’m buying $SOL not as a gamble—I think this round of Solana has already proven itself: it has users, trading volume, stablecoin activity, and DeFi activity. And even the underlying consensus layer is still being upgraded.

If all of these are continuing to grow, I see no reason to turn bearish on SOL just because BTC has pulled back over the past few days.

$ETH is currently around $2,490.

Recently I revisited $ETH and found two pieces of data that, together, are actually quite interesting: about 34% of ETH has now entered staking, and last week the US spot ETH ETF saw net inflows of roughly $218 million.

What truly matters are the circulating supply figures.

As the staking ratio keeps rising, it means more and more ETH is leaving the spot, immediately tradable market. If ETFs continue to make sustained net purchases, that’s increasing spot demand on the other side. Farside’s data also shows that on September 3, ETH ETFs had a daily net inflow of about $141.4 million, and on September 4 they continued with net inflows of about $25.9 million.

So when I look at ETH now, I don’t really want to keep debating the old questions like “Are gas fees high?” or “Is L2 capturing enough revenue?”

What I’d rather focus on is: if ETFs keep buying, and the staking ratio continues to stay at historically high levels, how much of the $ETH that is genuinely available for free trading will be left in the market.

If around $2,500 can continue to hold steady, then I think these supply-and-demand changes will gradually be reflected in the price.

And for the entire altcoin market, whether ETH can keep moving higher matters far more than whether a bunch of smaller coins can jump 20% in a single day.

Bitcoin $BTC has already returned to the vicinity of $78,000 today. The latest quote briefly hovered around $78,298. Just last week it touched $82,164, and now it has been pushed back below $80,000 again.

But I think what’s most worth watching for $BTC right now isn’t whether it’s around $78,000 or $80,000—it’s the very clear contradiction appearing in the market.

On one side, the U.S. spot $BTC ETF has seen net inflows for the third consecutive week as of September 4; over three weeks it has accumulated roughly $3.8 billion, which is the clearest stretch of continuous accumulation this year.

On the other side, the U.S. August employment data came in far above expectations, and the market is currently pricing the probability of a September rate hike at about 57%–60%. Combine that with rising oil prices, daily Treasury yields, and daily fluctuations in the yen, and the global risk-asset environment is actually facing rising funding costs.

So right now, BTC is basically being pulled in two directions:

The ETF continues to buy spot aggressively, while the macro environment is once again tightening expectations for liquidity.

That’s also why I wouldn’t suddenly turn bearish just because it drops back to $78,000.

If, under this kind of macro backdrop, the ETF can keep maintaining net inflows, I’m actually more interested in seeing how that previously suppressed demand will show up in price after the next wave of macro pressure eases.

#美加关税战升级

$WLD Today is near $0.47

During the day, the high already reached 0.5059; over the past 30 days, the increase has been close to 47%. But when I look back at this round of行情 again, the price is actually not the most noteworthy part.

As of September 2, Eightco disclosed holdings of nearly 302 million WLD. Meanwhile, Grayscale has already filed an application for a Worldcoin ETF. The way traditional capital participates in $WLD is gradually shifting from simply trading spot assets to becoming involved through corporate balance sheets and financial products.

In addition, World has just released ProveKit. Zero-knowledge proofs can be completed directly on users’ devices: information such as age and nationality can be verified, but the original identity data does not need to leave the device.

In fact, this matters more than merely talking about an “AI identity concept.”

As more AI Agents appear, one real-world problem the network needs to solve is: how to prove that the person behind the screen is truly a human—while not giving away all privacy.

So when I look at $WLD right now, I’m watching for two things happening at the same time: capital starts to enter, and World ID itself also begins to advance from a concept into real, usable identity infrastructure.

$FF is currently around $0.133. After it rose from around $0.08 at the beginning of September, it has mostly been digesting around $0.12 these past few days.

I’ve looked again at $FF , and what’s really worth writing about isn’t how much it’s risen in the past few days, but that Falcon Finance has already started expanding its business from “synthetic dollars” into the RWA-backed layer.

As of the end of August, the USDf supply is about $1.18 billion, reserves about $1.67 billion, and the disclosed collateralization ratio is 141.6%. Even more interesting is that they’re pushing forward a regulated RWA issuance pipeline. The first product is GPU forward financing; in the future, once there’s enough liquidity, assets like this can also be used to mint USDf as collateral.

This will cause a slight change in Falcon’s logic.

Previously, it was using on-chain assets like BTC and stablecoins to generate dollar liquidity. Going forward, if GPUs, private credit, energy, and even other RWAs can enter the collateral pool, then in practice they’re building a larger “general-purpose collateral layer.”

So when valuing $FF , I won’t just estimate it based on one small DeFi coin.

What truly determines its room ahead is whether USDf can continue to expand, and whether these newly added businesses ultimately transmit value to FF itself. Going forward, the two pieces of data I care about most are exactly these.

$DOT today is about $1.06–$1.10

Over the past week, it has already risen by roughly 26%. Today, the intraday high reached $1.108.

At first, I could simply interpret this as another rotation in old-school “copycat” coins. But today’s data makes me feel we should look one layer deeper.

During this upswing, Polkadot network activity at one point increased by about 150%, while the derivatives market saw around a $610,000 short liquidation. In other words, there is definitely a short-squeeze component here—but it’s not completely without on-chain data backing it.

The most special thing about $DOT is actually that expectations are too low.

Its previous all-time high was $55; now it’s down to about $1. The market has already priced out most of Polkadot’s stories over the past few years. So I won’t assume it must rally back just because it used to be expensive.

What I really want to see is whether, after it regains that $1 level, the on-chain activity can hold.

If the data holds, then $DOT may gradually move from being just a “old coin rebound” into a situation where capital once again starts assigning a valuation to Polkadot.

$INJ Today has already reached the vicinity of $6.6. Currently it's at $6.2. In the past 24 hours, it’s up about 16%, with trading volume exceeding $200 million, and the intraday high was $6.709.

But if today all we did was write “INJ is up 16%,” it wouldn’t really mean much.

What I care about more is that Pineapple Financial has migrated over $1 billion worth of residential mortgage loan record data to Injective. There are now 2,079 records, and the planned scale is expected to keep expanding further.

Mortgage-backed assets are a completely different world from Memes.

They’re high in value, have long maturities, and were originally highly dependent on traditional financial databases. If records, settlement, and even subsequent financial products begin to gradually move onto the chain, then Injective’s role wouldn’t just be as a public chain for people to trade perpetual futures.

This is also why I’m willing to keep holding $INJ .

It’s still close to about 88% of its all-time high near $53.2, but what it’s carrying on-chain now is actually closer to real finance than in the previous cycle.

I think this is what makes INJ worth studying most right now.

Gold $XAUT today is roughly around 4,400 USD. I think one of the easiest things the market can misread right now is that when they see the escalation of the Middle East situation, they directly assume gold will definitely rise.

In reality, it’s a lot more complicated.

Last Friday, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, clearly above expectations. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%. The market then pushed the probability of a September rate hike back to about 60%. Gold fell 2.4% that day. Today spot gold is around 4,399.99 USD.

At the same time, energy facilities in the Middle East were attacked, and oil prices are rising again.

Here’s the key: war risk is itself supportive for safe-haven demand, but higher oil prices can also push inflation back up, making it harder for the Fed to cut rates—possibly even leading to continued rate hikes. Higher real yields then weigh on gold.

So at the 4,400 level, I won’t simply explain it with just the word “safe haven.”

I still remain bullish on gold in the long run, but for the short term, what truly determines the next leg’s direction is whether the upcoming PPI and CPI data—and the oil price rise—are actually feeding back into inflation expectations.

Those data points matter more than the war headline itself.

$XAU $PAXG

$ZEN back to $6.8–7
I think they’re all good opportunities to board.

$ZEN has been pulled from around $6 up to above $7 in the front; over the past two days, as the market pulled back, I actually like this level more now.

My thinking hasn’t changed. For the $6.8–7 range, I think it’s all a zone where you can gradually board.

ZEN’s biggest advantage right now is that its market cap is still small. Compared with $ZEC , which has already entered the broader view of larger capital, ZEN at this size—once the privacy track continues to spread—when funds start looking for the second tier, the upside elasticity could be even more dramatic.

Also, ZEN is no longer just telling a story based on the three words “privacy coin.” After migrating to Base, the direction has gradually shifted toward privacy infrastructure, Private DeFi. With ZEN staking restarting, the whole ecosystem is being rebuilt.

So when I buy ZEN, I’m not doing it for a move like buying at $6.9 and selling at $7.5—those kind of multi-percentage swing trades.

$ZEC Back to 1130-1150, and I think we may be able to buy the dip again.

$ZEC The previous peak already surged to around $1248. Now it has returned to the 1130-1150 area, and over the past 24 hours you can clearly see a pullback from the high. During today’s trading session, the low even briefly dipped to around $1118.

But I actually feel this kind of retracement is normal.

It previously surged from the 800s, broke through 1000, and then moved above 1200—too fast, which naturally requires washing out a portion of short-term trading positions. What’s truly important is that the logic behind this rally hasn’t changed just because the price dropped by $100.

After ZCSH was listed, its asset size has already exceeded $400 million, and public data shows at least $34.4 million in net inflows. This indicates that this ZEC move isn’t just retail investors trading on the privacy narrative—institutional funds have indeed started to enter.

So for me, whether or not to chase above 1200 is one question, but whether it’s back at 1130-1150 is another.

As long as this major-level $1000 position hasn’t fallen below again, I still interpret the current situation as a pullback within an uptrend.

In the 1130-1150 range, I will continue to buy ZEC in batches.

My expectations for ZEC have never been about levels like 1200 or 1500. That’s why, even with a normal retracement like this, I’d rather see it as an opportunity to get back on board.

$FORM Today is up, and I think it’s worth paying attention.

$FORM Today the price once reached around $0.38, with a 24-hour increase of more than 40%, and the trading volume also directly surged to about $65 million.

I don’t think this time can just be taken as a normal small-coin rebound.

Today, over on Four.meme, the 4Stock has clearly started gaining volume. BNC4 even briefly showed on-chain prices far higher than those of the corresponding US stocks. The capital flowing around the “stock assets + Meme” play is obviously charging into this kind of setup.

And FORM itself is the core token of the Four ecosystem. In the CDL presale a few days ago, they even used FORM to participate in the subscription, and the final FORM subscription amount exceeded 16 million tokens.

So when I look at FORM now, the logic is actually pretty simple.

If Four.meme is only a platform for issuing Memes, the room for imagination is limited. But if it really starts slowly blending Memes, on-chain stocks, and asset issuance into one, then FORM’s positioning will be completely different.

After a 40% jump today, it’s definitely not at a low level anymore. But for a coin with such a sudden surge in volume and a new way of playing emerging in the ecosystem, I’d actually start taking it seriously.

Especially since the total market cap is still only a little over $100 million. With a size like this, once it meets BNB Chain capital returning, the upside elasticity won’t be small.

$ZEC target 6000u
$WLD target 2u
$ZEN target 100u

$WLD now around $0.47
This is an extremely strong trend.

After reviewing the materials again, I found that the market may be starting to trade World’s most core story once more:

The stronger the AI, the more valuable the “prove you’re human” thing becomes.

Even more interesting is that capital is starting to flow in as well.

Eightco’s latest disclosure shows it has already accumulated nearly 302 million WLD tokens; based on the current circulating supply, that’s close to 9%. On the other side, Grayscale has also previously filed an application for a Worldcoin spot ETF, planning to list GWLD on Nasdaq.

These two developments have made me understand WLD differently from before.

Previously, it was mostly being traded as a bet on Sam Altman.

Now that there are more and more AI agents, the “human identity” that World ID aims to solve actually has more and more real-world need.

Around 0.47, I’ll continue to be bullish.

The short term has already risen quite a bit, but as long as the trend doesn’t break, I won’t jump ship just because of a dozen percentage points in profit.

First, look at 0.50, then 0.65.

If in 2027 AI becomes the main crypto theme again, $WLD I don’t think it will be absent.

$WLD Over these past two days, it’s really getting stronger.

The price is already around $0.47. Today it even touched as high as $0.477, and it’s up more than 10% in a single day.

What I like isn’t this particular bullish candle, but that BTC is still consolidating around the $80,000 level. Many altcoins haven’t even moved. WLD, on the other hand, has already been pushing higher on its own for consecutive days.

This kind of relative strength usually suggests that capital is starting to rush in early.

Also, this round isn’t completely without volume. WLD’s daily trading volume has already expanded to more than $200 million. The earlier resistance around 0.42–0.43 has also already been broken through.

So right now, I actually don’t really want to guess when it will pull back.

As long as it can hold above the 0.44 area, this upward structure is still intact.

Next, I’ll look at 0.50. After a breakout, I’ll directly be watching for 0.60–0.65.

$WLD The next leg might already be underway.

$WLD goal 2U

$WLD I’m starting to turn bullish again
The AI bull market will eventually spill over into the identity sector

WLD has recently climbed back above $0.4, and over the past month it has clearly recovered from the bottom. In the latest round of gains, trading volume and open interest in futures contracts have also increased in sync.

The core logic behind my view on WLD is still human identity verification in the AI era.

As AI Agents become more and more common, the internet will eventually need to solve one problem: how to prove the person on the other side of the screen is a human, not an AI. World’s World ID fits perfectly into this spot, and Grayscale has also already filed for a WLD ETF this year.

This coin has already fallen far enough, and market expectations are low enough.

If AI remains the main theme in 2027, I think coins like WLD, which have Sam Altman, an AI identity narrative, and are still at low levels, will very easily be pushed up by capital again.