HiLo丨保罗高低量化

Happy Friday!
Yesterday, both BTC and ETH fell to fresh lows for this correction. BTC dipped to 79.8K, while ETH reached around 2,320, broadly in line with this week’s expectation that a C-wave decline could follow the B-wave rebound. The market has since staged a short-term rebound overnight, with BTC facing concentrated resistance around 83K.
From a wave-structure perspective, the size and extent of this BTC C-wave correction have been relatively limited, so it’s still too early to tell whether a C5 will form. For now, we’ll watch how the rebound develops: lows have appeared in the support zone, and BTC has also seen a confluence of lows across multiple timeframes from 30M to 4H. Whether it can reclaim 84K over the weekend will be a key level to watch.

The market continues to fluctuate and drift lower. After flagging a B-wave rebound early this week, the market pulled back for a second time. BTC staged a sharp V-shaped rebound after dipping the day before yesterday, but failed to surpass its previous rebound high and remained capped near 8.45. It has now fallen back below 8.2, and the overall market remains range-bound. No short-term bottoming signal has emerged yet, so patience is still needed.
ETH is following a similar pattern. Looking at the longer-term chart, the support platform below will be tested in the short term. This platform is also a relatively important support area recently and is worth continuing to monitor. If ETH and BTC bottom out in tandem and show bottoming signals, that may present a new opportunity to watch.

Last week, after more than half a month of consolidating at elevated levels, the crypto market ultimately chose to move lower. Bitcoin again saw a confluence of highs across the 15M, 2H, and 4H timeframes. After failing to break above 8.7, it continued to pull back, reaching a low near 8. Ether also broke below its previous high-level trading range, pulling back to a low near 2,400.
This pullback broadly aligns with the confluence of the previously formed 12H, daily, and multi-timeframe highs. A directional move after several days of consolidation tends to have some follow-through, so Bitcoin breaking below 8.3 and continuing to test the round-number level of 8 is a relatively reasonable move. In terms of wave structure, for now we can tentatively identify this as the first downward wave following the daily high.

Last week, the crypto market continued to consolidate at elevated levels. BTC has traded above 83,000 for nearly two weeks. During that time, it made several attempts to move higher, but the first few breakouts failed to gain traction. Price action has mainly been using “time to make room,” gradually absorbing the pressure from the earlier 12H and daily high-point signals.
Midweek, BTC briefly climbed to around 85,500 before quickly pulling back, leaving a long upper wick on the 4H chart and returning inside the descending converging triangle. It then gradually stabilized around support near 82,700, and the recent 1H and 2H low-point signals have largely reached their short-term targets. On Friday, BTC broke out of the triangle again and reclaimed 85,000. After briefly consolidating over the weekend, it moved higher once more and is now around 86,500, approaching the previous high again.

BTC is consolidating and strengthening. After a decline and sideways movement over the weekend, last night BTC launched another upward push and is now near the previous high around 8.65. In the short term, the focus is on whether it can break through the previous high resistance at 8.73 and set a new high for this rebound.
After about two weeks of high-level consolidation, BTC has been continuously absorbing the pressure brought by the previous high through a “time-to-space” approach. If it can break upward further, it’s important to observe the strength of the subsequent rally. If it only climbs slowly, the market may once again show high-point warning signals.
Also, continue to watch whether previously popular varieties such as ZEC, HYPE, NEAR, etc. can follow the upward move. If these assets can form a broad-based rally, the market may enter a new round of行情. At present, ADA’s rise is relatively leading.

Last night, the market saw an upward breakout. BTC briefly hit a high of 85,500, and ETH also reached around 2,730. However, it then suffered a sharp pullback. On the 4H timeframe, the candlesticks formed a long upper wick, suggesting clear pressure overhead. The price has returned to within the converging triangle structure, and volatility is likely to continue.
This breakout failed to continue, indicating that the resistance above is still real. In the short term, it is expected to keep ranging and pulling back. Next, focus on the support below and the descending triangle structure recently formed by BTC, and wait for the market to choose a direction.

Last week, the crypto market continued its strong momentum. It first broke through the previous highs and the 8.3 range. BTC’s peak touched around 8.74, setting a new rebound high for this year, and it also broke above the rebound high from last May. Ethereum, SOL, BNB, and other major coins moved higher in tandem. Some popular coins like PEPE, TAO, and SUI saw gains exceeding 20%, and the market’s “making money” effect remained clearly evident.
However, after a rapid rise, the market started to show high-level consolidation in the middle of the week. Subsequently, BTC and Ethereum gradually formed 12H and daily high signals. Over the weekend, BTC pulled back to around 8.3, then a 1H low formed. There was a short-term rebound, reaching as high as around 8.5, but overall it is still in a high-level consolidation phase. For now, it’s still not simple to judge that the trend has already ended.

The weekend BTC daily high warning signal has finally formed. This is the first daily high that has appeared since BTC rebounded from its daily low in early July. It is also the second daily high formed this year; the previous one occurred in May.
If we look at the historical performance of BTC daily signals, over the past year there have been 7 occurrences in total, and in 6 of them the signal fell near the lowest or highest point of the market swing, with a historical hit rate of over 85%. This time is the 8th daily high signal. Whether it can once again validate this statistical performance—we’ll keep watching.

Happy Mid-Autumn Festival🥮
After yesterday, BTC fell back to the 8.3 support area and then the first batch of relatively concentrated “1H low-point signals” appeared. Multiple major mainstream popular coins also showed low-point signals at the same time. After that, during the night the market moved out of a sideways-to-up rebound, with BTC rebounding to around 8.5 at its highest.
From the current price action, after BTC broke upward this week and made a new high, yesterday we gradually saw high-point signals at the 12H + daily levels. Such higher-timeframe signals usually indicate the possibility of a local top. Therefore, in the short term, we still need to be cautious about the risk of chasing after a surge. However, the market has not yet entered a deep correction phase. Overall, it is still in a high-range consolidation. For now, we cannot conclude that the trend has ended. So in the short term, we will continue to focus on the high-range consolidation idea. Price may hold above 8.2 for a period of time in a 4H-level consolidation, absorbing the pressure brought by the high-point signals through sideways movement.