Is the crypto market a bull market or a bear market right now? Analyze it from three dimensions
Consider it rationally from three dimensions! Because bull and bear markets are driven by macro factors and logic, not by price fluctuations. The crypto market is very volatile, First, the macro perspective: In 2014, during the crypto bull-market top, the market cap was 100 billion yuan In 2017, during the crypto bull-market top, the market cap was 800 billion yuan In 2021, during the crypto bull-market top, the market cap was 3,000 billion yuan In 2026, is it currently 2 trillion? So here’s the question: in the crypto market, it’s an incremental market. In this round, the existing market—gold market cap—has also risen by more than 300,000 billion dollars. And even U.S. stocks are up significantly. Gold—August 2017: 80 trillion yuan Gold in December 2021: 120 trillion yuan Gold in 2025: 4.3 trillion yuan An incremental market versus a stock (existing) market—when you compare the two like this, all the problems are completely resolved,
In this round, the prince took the brothers to buy the dip in Bitcoin in July 2023 at 31,000. For Ethereum, the prince led the brothers to buy the dip in June 2025 at 2,200. Starting the end of June, he stressed that there might be a needle-insertion event that didn’t go through contracts—so they dodged 10.11. 6月底全网看空情况下,太子说以太坊2250正式启动主升浪,明确七月3800,六月底多次申明年底打底1.2万u,比特币10万时强调7月12万多位置。 太子带兄弟们提前躲过了10.11 唯一强调2026年八月开始主升浪!全网都等十月抄底
These are typical bull market characteristics: over the past month or two, the major players first built positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and earlier on, Bitcoin and Ethereum rose particularly sharply. But they hadn't built up many positions in altcoins, so altcoins fell hard—the major players hadn't built positions in them yet. This time, the major players have fully built up their altcoin positions at the bottom. I can sense it. But now they're starting to flush out leveraged Ethereum positions, because they had built positions in it earlier. Coins that are rising like this—PEPE, for example—show that the major players had already built their positions. They won't let you buy the dip, so at this point, you can just buy while prices are cheap.
Guys, I ran this copy-trading campaign from July through the end of October—three months in total. The peak was in September, when we hit 8x, using low leverage the whole time. Then I climbed to second place on the all-platform profit leaderboard. Starting with a copy-trading volume of 100,000 U, I outperformed those who started with several million U. My outlook on the market ahead hasn't changed: I still expect a big rally. This latest sell-off has hit a lot of coins that hadn't even gone up yet. For example, the meme coin sector had very clean supply distribution. I didn't expect this sell-off—it has already fallen further than I anticipated. That's just how brutal this market is. Some coins keep rising and making new highs, unaffected—like ZEC and PEPE. Others keep trending down and making new lows. And the coins hitting new lows aren't junk; they're major coins, like Dogecoin. So this market really has wiped everything out. But as I said, you get back up where you fell. I lost around 700,000 U in this drawdown, give or take: 300,000 U on futures and over 400,000 U in spot. This account is specifically for futures; my rebate account is for spot. The endgame for trading futures and altcoins is liquidation and going to zero. Everyone knows that. In crypto, as long as you're not trading Bitcoin, the outcome is going to zero if you keep playing. Before that happens, though, it comes down to how you inflate the bubble. With altcoins, everyone knows that during a bull market, some projects can see their coin prices rise a hundredfold or even a thousandfold. But no matter how many coins you hold, after the bear market they're all going to zero. I'll take a couple of days to reset and get my mindset back on track, then I'll start copy trading again in a few days.
Everyone is saying that panic in the U.S. stock market is spreading to crypto. Honestly, I’m not so sure. U.S. stocks have been rising for a full year, while crypto has been falling for a year. How much room is there for crypto to fall further at this point? It’s already fallen in advance. And yesterday, it was really just Bitcoin that fell sharply. Many altcoins didn’t break below key levels. When Bitcoin continued to slide this morning, altcoins were still holding steady. Ethereum’s support is very strong. The broader U.S. stock market fell very sharply yesterday. If crypto had behaved like it did over the past few months, Ethereum would have fallen by at least 20 percent.
It was just like 2020: after the broader U.S. stock market moved sideways and peaked for a while, crypto kept rising for three to five months. Small-cap U.S. stocks also ran out of steam toward the end of 2020. That’s when the money flowed into crypto.
This sharp drop in BTC was entirely driven by the U.S. stock market. I looked through the data and found nothing unusual.
During the decline, Cb showed no strong proactive selling pressure, and there was no large inflow of coins from outside. The only notable movement was a transfer of 2,980 coins from LTH at 18:00 tonight, but that doesn’t amount to particularly heavy selling pressure; STH barely moved at all.
What’s gotten into the U.S. stock market? If it’s about the midterm election results and the market pricing in a slowdown in data center construction, it should have fallen yesterday.
U.S. stocks have been rising for a year, while crypto has been falling for a year.
In 2021, BTC broke $69,000! DOGE soared to $0.74! And that was all during Biden’s term! The Democrats talk about crushing crypto, but their printing presses are flooding the market with money!
Now look at what Trump did after taking office:
He waged a tariff war, drove up inflation, and slammed the door on rate cuts! He launched the TRUMP coin, letting his family rake in money and drain liquidity! He started a war with Iran, sending crude oil prices soaring and pushing up the dollar index!
A nice profit this time—30 points, making back some losses. The trading plan below from Prince will include U.S. stocks and precious metals. Silver has fallen hard, so there are lots of opportunities on the daily charts. 80% will go into crypto, and 20% of the trades will be in U.S. stocks. So Prince has restarted and enabled mandatory position syncing for the signal provider, so everyone can follow along from here on. The starting amount has also been adjusted to 500 USDT. Spots are reserved for people who genuinely need to get in. The target is unchanged: 50x in two months. This time, I’ll use leverage of no more than 4x, and I won’t scale up positions. Last time I used between 4x and 6x, and scaled up Dogecoin at the peak. I’m done with that garbage. This time, I’ll stay below 4x throughout. And going forward, profits won’t be used to increase positions, keeping safety at the highest level.