First, a note on the methodology: these are Binance spot NEOUSDT daily candles that have closed, covering August 17 to November 14 UTC, for a total of 90 candles. The candle for today, November 15, has not closed yet, so it is not included. When I say “held throughout,” I mean from the August 17 open to the November 14 close. “Friday” below refers to UTC daily candles. The closing-price comparison is against the previous day’s (Thursday’s) close; gains and losses are determined by rounding to two decimal places, so a result of 0.00% counts as neither a gain nor a loss. These are historical figures and do not represent the current market.
The August 17 open was 1.66, and the November 14 close was 1.522, for a return of -8.31% over the full 90 days. Over the same period, $BTC was +1.99%.
Of the 89 close-to-close comparisons, 13 were Fridays by UTC. Of those 13, 9 were up and 4 were down, for a cumulative return of +28.95% and an average of +2.06%. The biggest gain was on August 21, when the close rose 11.23%. It was also the biggest single-day close-to-close gain in these 90 days; BTC rose 7.28% that day. The biggest Friday drop was on August 28, when the close fell 4.96%. Excluding the biggest-gaining day, August 21, the remaining 12 Fridays were still 8 up and 4 down, with a cumulative return of +15.93%.
Over the same period, BTC itself was up on 4 of these 13 Fridays and down on 9, for a cumulative return of just +2.14%.
The other 76 close-to-close comparisons had a cumulative return of -29.99%: 34 were up, 41 were down, and 1 was unchanged at the close. The final 45 candles, from the September 30 close of 2.541 to November 14, returned -40.10%, while BTC returned -23.29% over the same period. The 7 Fridays in this half were still 5 up and 2 down, with a cumulative return of +6.03%. The first 45 candles, through September 30, returned +53.07%, while BTC returned +32.95%; the 6 Fridays in that period had a cumulative return of +21.61%.
By month: +22.95% from the August 17 open to the August 31 close, +24.50% in September, -21.90% in October, and -23.44% in the first 14 days of November.
It reached a high of 2.764 on October 2. The November 14 close was 44.93% below that high, and it would take another 81.60% gain to get back to it. 43 days had passed in between. The highest closing price was 2.701 on September 25, also a Friday. The November 14 close was 43.65% below that, making it the deepest drawdown from a previous closing high among these 90 closes. The 90-day low was 1.477 on November 14, and the lowest close was also that day, at 1.522. Of the 90 closes, 89 were above the opening price at the start of the period; only the final close, on November 14, was below it.
November 14 was a Saturday. The close fell 11.15% that day, the biggest drop among the 89 comparisons. BTC fell 6.10% from open to close. It closed at 1.522, 8.31% below the opening price at the start of the period. Of the 89 close-to-close comparisons, 43 were up, 45 were down, and 1 was unchanged at the close: August 24.
The 13 Fridays had a cumulative return of +28.95%, while the full 90 days returned -8.31%. These two figures cover different stretches of time.
If you saw that a coin was down over 90 days, would you first break out Fridays from the other days?