On Friday, you could still call it a “fakeout.” After Saturday’s drop, the 200-week moving average has genuinely been breached—and there was no new news this weekend. The decline was purely crypto’s own plumbing selling.
$BTC On Sunday morning, the price fell to a low of $62,006, its lowest since July 13. In a single day, it first broke below $64,000, then $63,000.
At the time of posting, it was around $65,041, up about 4.9% from the low, but still roughly $2,800 short of the 200-week moving average at $67,879. Less than a day remains before the weekly close tonight (Monday at 08:00 Beijing time).
Last Sunday’s close was $74,740. The price is down about 13% so far this week, making it all but certain to be the sixth consecutive weekly candle to close lower.
More than $1.9 billion in liquidations occurred across the market over the 24-hour weekend period. Within an hour of breaking below $64,000, $691 million was liquidated, 97% of it from long positions.
The Fear and Greed Index fell to 10. It was still at 32 on Tuesday: in five days, it plunged from neutral all the way to extreme fear. The last time it hit 10 was in June. In March and April this year, it stayed around 8 for several weeks.
The broader backdrop isn’t looking good either: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw seven consecutive days of outflows totaling $1.907 billion (November 5–13), and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 5.15%. The Federal Reserve’s November 13 Financial Stability Report said hedge fund leverage was at its highest level since data began in 2013. The report didn’t mention Bitcoin, but the “pullback in risky assets” it singled out is now happening.
My view: the key issue isn’t how much the price has fallen, but that this decline doesn’t need any new negative catalyst. U.S. stock markets were closed; there was no data and no official speaking. The price itself fell through the last long-term moving average, suggesting the selling pressure is coming from existing positions (leveraged liquidations + the aftereffects of ETF redemptions + thin weekend order books), rather than any particular news event.
With this kind of decline, a 5% rebound doesn’t change the weekly verdict; it only changes the length of the red candle.
Next, watch three variables: Can the weekly close tonight get back above $67,900 (it needs to rise about 4.4%)? Can ETF flows turn around on Monday? After seven consecutive days of outflows, even a single day of net inflows would be meaningful. And don’t treat a Fear Index reading of 10 as a buy-the-dip signal—it measures sentiment, not the bottom.
If tonight’s weekly close can’t get back above $68,000, will you be watching the $60,000 round-number level first next week, or the yearly low of around $57,700 from July 1?
#比特币 #加密货币 #Federal Reserve
The above is only a compilation of market information and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC On Sunday morning, the price fell to a low of $62,006, its lowest since July 13. In a single day, it first broke below $64,000, then $63,000.
At the time of posting, it was around $65,041, up about 4.9% from the low, but still roughly $2,800 short of the 200-week moving average at $67,879. Less than a day remains before the weekly close tonight (Monday at 08:00 Beijing time).
Last Sunday’s close was $74,740. The price is down about 13% so far this week, making it all but certain to be the sixth consecutive weekly candle to close lower.
More than $1.9 billion in liquidations occurred across the market over the 24-hour weekend period. Within an hour of breaking below $64,000, $691 million was liquidated, 97% of it from long positions.
The Fear and Greed Index fell to 10. It was still at 32 on Tuesday: in five days, it plunged from neutral all the way to extreme fear. The last time it hit 10 was in June. In March and April this year, it stayed around 8 for several weeks.
The broader backdrop isn’t looking good either: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw seven consecutive days of outflows totaling $1.907 billion (November 5–13), and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 5.15%. The Federal Reserve’s November 13 Financial Stability Report said hedge fund leverage was at its highest level since data began in 2013. The report didn’t mention Bitcoin, but the “pullback in risky assets” it singled out is now happening.
My view: the key issue isn’t how much the price has fallen, but that this decline doesn’t need any new negative catalyst. U.S. stock markets were closed; there was no data and no official speaking. The price itself fell through the last long-term moving average, suggesting the selling pressure is coming from existing positions (leveraged liquidations + the aftereffects of ETF redemptions + thin weekend order books), rather than any particular news event.
With this kind of decline, a 5% rebound doesn’t change the weekly verdict; it only changes the length of the red candle.
Next, watch three variables: Can the weekly close tonight get back above $67,900 (it needs to rise about 4.4%)? Can ETF flows turn around on Monday? After seven consecutive days of outflows, even a single day of net inflows would be meaningful. And don’t treat a Fear Index reading of 10 as a buy-the-dip signal—it measures sentiment, not the bottom.
If tonight’s weekly close can’t get back above $68,000, will you be watching the $60,000 round-number level first next week, or the yearly low of around $57,700 from July 1?
#比特币 #加密货币 #Federal Reserve
The above is only a compilation of market information and does not constitute investment advice.