BTC has fallen back to August levels, hitting a 12-week low. Most of the gains from this summer’s rally have been wiped out.
Pressure is coming from three fronts: sticky inflation data, rising bets that the Fed will resume rate hikes, and continued net outflows from spot ETFs. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar directly increase the discount rate for risk assets; ETF redemptions mean incremental capital is shifting from buying to selling, naturally thinning spot-market demand.
The outlook is tilted bearish, but this looks more like a repricing than the end of the trend. The key things to watch now aren’t entry points for buying the dip, but two signals of a potential turn: first, whether Treasury yields peak and start to fall; second, whether ETF flows stop declining and turn positive. If upcoming CPI and PCE data come in softer, rate-hike bets could quickly be disproven, significantly increasing the potential for a rebound.
Related asset: $BTC , with a bearish bias.
Source: Decrypt
Are you watching more closely for Treasury yields to peak or ETF flows to turn positive?
Image 1: BTC hits a 12-week low as rate-hike fears wipe out summer gains · Key Takeaways
Image source: https://decrypt.co/383231/bitcoin-hits-12-week-low-fed-rate-fears-undo-summer-rally
Pressure is coming from three fronts: sticky inflation data, rising bets that the Fed will resume rate hikes, and continued net outflows from spot ETFs. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar directly increase the discount rate for risk assets; ETF redemptions mean incremental capital is shifting from buying to selling, naturally thinning spot-market demand.
The outlook is tilted bearish, but this looks more like a repricing than the end of the trend. The key things to watch now aren’t entry points for buying the dip, but two signals of a potential turn: first, whether Treasury yields peak and start to fall; second, whether ETF flows stop declining and turn positive. If upcoming CPI and PCE data come in softer, rate-hike bets could quickly be disproven, significantly increasing the potential for a rebound.
Related asset: $BTC , with a bearish bias.
Source: Decrypt
Are you watching more closely for Treasury yields to peak or ETF flows to turn positive?
Image 1: BTC hits a 12-week low as rate-hike fears wipe out summer gains · Key Takeaways
Image source: https://decrypt.co/383231/bitcoin-hits-12-week-low-fed-rate-fears-undo-summer-rally
