U.S. weekly earnings rose 1.5% year over year, still trailing the 3.5% increase in prices
Do rising wage figures necessarily mean that people’s purchasing power has improved? At 10:00 p.m. Beijing time on October 21, the actual third-quarter results released by the BLS showed a clear gap: the median weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers in the United States were $1,232, up 1.5% year over year; over the same period, the CPI-U rose 3.5%. This time, growth in median nominal earnings lagged behind prices.
This compares the same quarter with the same quarter a year earlier, and the weekly earnings figures are not seasonally adjusted. The two growth rates differ by 2 percentage points, showing that looking only at the fact that “wages are still rising” misses the purchasing-power dimension. But this does not mean everyone’s wages were cut, nor can it be directly translated into a decline in household consumption. The report measures the midpoint of the earnings distribution among wage and salary workers; self-employed workers are not included in this income measure.
Looking at quarterly changes, the current report summary gives a seasonally adjusted median weekly earnings figure of $1,239, compared with $1,258 in the previous quarter. To assess the quarter-over-quarter change, these seasonally adjusted figures should be compared—not the unadjusted $1,232 figure subtracted from another figure using a different basis. Positive nominal year-over-year growth and a seasonally adjusted quarterly decline can occur at the same time.
For readers following the macro environment around crypto markets, I would split this into two paths that still need to be tested: pressure on income purchasing power could weaken support for consumption; but prices are still rising sharply over the same period, so this cannot be taken as direct evidence that inflationary pressure has disappeared. Changes in the employment mix and the shares of different groups may also move the overall median. A single report cannot replace a comprehensive assessment of demand, inflation, and policy. This time, I have not verified a reliable market consensus, so I won’t call the figures “better than expected” or say that “a rate cut is certain.”
The timeline for crypto markets is especially important to align: during the last full hour before the release, Binance BTC/USDT rose about 0.39%, with trading volume of about 98.78 million USDT, or 2.01 times the average for the previous five hours; ETH/USDT rose about 0.17%. These closed-hour figures, current through 21:59:59, can only serve as a pre-release baseline; they cannot prove that the market had already risen because of the wage results.
Next, I’ll check constant-price and breakdown data on a comparable basis, and then watch the first full hour after the release. The BLS also noted that the next quarterly report will include an annual revision to the relevant historical seasonally adjusted series. For now, what we can confirm is that growth in median earnings lagged behind prices over the same period. How consumption will change and how markets will price this in remain to be seen. $BTC $ETH
Do rising wage figures necessarily mean that people’s purchasing power has improved? At 10:00 p.m. Beijing time on October 21, the actual third-quarter results released by the BLS showed a clear gap: the median weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers in the United States were $1,232, up 1.5% year over year; over the same period, the CPI-U rose 3.5%. This time, growth in median nominal earnings lagged behind prices.
This compares the same quarter with the same quarter a year earlier, and the weekly earnings figures are not seasonally adjusted. The two growth rates differ by 2 percentage points, showing that looking only at the fact that “wages are still rising” misses the purchasing-power dimension. But this does not mean everyone’s wages were cut, nor can it be directly translated into a decline in household consumption. The report measures the midpoint of the earnings distribution among wage and salary workers; self-employed workers are not included in this income measure.
Looking at quarterly changes, the current report summary gives a seasonally adjusted median weekly earnings figure of $1,239, compared with $1,258 in the previous quarter. To assess the quarter-over-quarter change, these seasonally adjusted figures should be compared—not the unadjusted $1,232 figure subtracted from another figure using a different basis. Positive nominal year-over-year growth and a seasonally adjusted quarterly decline can occur at the same time.
For readers following the macro environment around crypto markets, I would split this into two paths that still need to be tested: pressure on income purchasing power could weaken support for consumption; but prices are still rising sharply over the same period, so this cannot be taken as direct evidence that inflationary pressure has disappeared. Changes in the employment mix and the shares of different groups may also move the overall median. A single report cannot replace a comprehensive assessment of demand, inflation, and policy. This time, I have not verified a reliable market consensus, so I won’t call the figures “better than expected” or say that “a rate cut is certain.”
The timeline for crypto markets is especially important to align: during the last full hour before the release, Binance BTC/USDT rose about 0.39%, with trading volume of about 98.78 million USDT, or 2.01 times the average for the previous five hours; ETH/USDT rose about 0.17%. These closed-hour figures, current through 21:59:59, can only serve as a pre-release baseline; they cannot prove that the market had already risen because of the wage results.
Next, I’ll check constant-price and breakdown data on a comparable basis, and then watch the first full hour after the release. The BLS also noted that the next quarterly report will include an annual revision to the relevant historical seasonally adjusted series. For now, what we can confirm is that growth in median earnings lagged behind prices over the same period. How consumption will change and how markets will price this in remain to be seen. $BTC $ETH