#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
I don’t own crude oil or U.S. Treasuries, but I still need to keep an eye on tonight’s CPI.
Right now, I hold Oracle, Google, Broadcom, and BTC. They don’t seem to have much to do with gas stations, but the bill from rising oil prices can make its way around and end up affecting my account too.
Tonight at 8:30 p.m., the U.S. will release September CPI data.
What concerns me most this time is a line of reasoning that sounds perfectly logical: oil prices are rising, inflation is picking up, so keep buying crude and shorting Treasuries.
But there’s a question missing in the middle: how much of this has the market already priced in?
If higher energy prices were already expected, a hotter-than-expected reading may not deliver a fresh shock. What’s more important to watch is whether core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is also heating up.
If inflation comes in significantly above expectations and the market raises its rate expectations further, Treasury yields could rise and bond prices could come under pressure.
But crude bulls may not have an easy time making money either: tight supply can support oil prices, while a stronger dollar and weaker demand expectations could push them back down.
Oil prices push inflation higher, and the tightening pressure inflation brings then comes back to weigh on oil. In trading, getting the first step right isn’t enough.
The same logic applies to my holdings.
Google, Broadcom, and Oracle each have their own business fundamentals.
But if the market demands a higher return on investment, it may be willing to pay less today for the same amount of future profit. A company doesn’t have to suddenly get worse for its share price to fall.
And I can’t just assume BTC will act as a safe haven. When risk appetite contracts, it may come under pressure alongside tech stocks. That kind of correlation has appeared before, but it doesn’t mean it will happen every time.
So tonight, my plan is to first see how much headline and core CPI differ from expectations, then watch Treasury yields, the dollar, and how my holdings react.
If the data runs hot and yields keep rising, I’ll need to reassess how much volatility my positions can withstand. I can’t just rely on “being bullish on AI for the long term” to reassure myself.
If the data is mild, I won’t rush to chase the first green candle either. I’ll wait to see whether the gains hold.
One thing this CPI release reminds me is that owning four different names in my account doesn’t mean my risk is split into four parts.
The biggest danger is thinking I’m diversified in normal times, only to find that when everything falls, it’s as if I owned just one stock.
$AVGOB $CL
I don’t own crude oil or U.S. Treasuries, but I still need to keep an eye on tonight’s CPI.
Right now, I hold Oracle, Google, Broadcom, and BTC. They don’t seem to have much to do with gas stations, but the bill from rising oil prices can make its way around and end up affecting my account too.
Tonight at 8:30 p.m., the U.S. will release September CPI data.
What concerns me most this time is a line of reasoning that sounds perfectly logical: oil prices are rising, inflation is picking up, so keep buying crude and shorting Treasuries.
But there’s a question missing in the middle: how much of this has the market already priced in?
If higher energy prices were already expected, a hotter-than-expected reading may not deliver a fresh shock. What’s more important to watch is whether core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is also heating up.
If inflation comes in significantly above expectations and the market raises its rate expectations further, Treasury yields could rise and bond prices could come under pressure.
But crude bulls may not have an easy time making money either: tight supply can support oil prices, while a stronger dollar and weaker demand expectations could push them back down.
Oil prices push inflation higher, and the tightening pressure inflation brings then comes back to weigh on oil. In trading, getting the first step right isn’t enough.
The same logic applies to my holdings.
Google, Broadcom, and Oracle each have their own business fundamentals.
But if the market demands a higher return on investment, it may be willing to pay less today for the same amount of future profit. A company doesn’t have to suddenly get worse for its share price to fall.
And I can’t just assume BTC will act as a safe haven. When risk appetite contracts, it may come under pressure alongside tech stocks. That kind of correlation has appeared before, but it doesn’t mean it will happen every time.
So tonight, my plan is to first see how much headline and core CPI differ from expectations, then watch Treasury yields, the dollar, and how my holdings react.
If the data runs hot and yields keep rising, I’ll need to reassess how much volatility my positions can withstand. I can’t just rely on “being bullish on AI for the long term” to reassure myself.
If the data is mild, I won’t rush to chase the first green candle either. I’ll wait to see whether the gains hold.
One thing this CPI release reminds me is that owning four different names in my account doesn’t mean my risk is split into four parts.
The biggest danger is thinking I’m diversified in normal times, only to find that when everything falls, it’s as if I owned just one stock.
$AVGOB $CL
