The structure in the chart shows that the amount of global liquidity continues to rise in terms of quantity, but the rate of liquidity growth has lost momentum throughout 2026. This distinction is especially important for #Bitcoin and other risk assets.
In the chart, Global M2 Supply is reaching approximately 123.938, forming new peaks. In other words, there is no evidence of a structural contraction in global money supply. By contrast, the M2 bars have pulled back from the double-digit levels they reached at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, falling to roughly the 7–8% range in the latest segment. Therefore, we can read it as liquidity still expanding, but with a slower pace of expansion.
While a strong long-term relationship between Global M2 and Bitcoin can be observed, that relationship is not consistent in the short term; factors such as interest rates, the US dollar, risk appetite, and the crypto market’s own liquidity can significantly change timing.
As of September 2026, the policy of the major central banks has not yet fully moved onto a more easing-oriented footing. On September 16, the Fed raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% range. This was the first rate hike since 2023 and indicates that the Fed is still maintaining a tight stance in its fight against inflation.
Moreover, in the latest set of four major economic indicators, by the end of August 2026, Global M2 was at roughly $103.4 trillion; the three-month change was +1.17%, while the six-month change was weaker. This supports the idea that the money supply is expanding, but momentum is not exceptionally strong.
For Bitcoin, what will matter going forward is less whether M2 continues to rise, and more whether the M2 growth rate re-accelerates. If the green histogram rises again and shows that M2 YoY Growth is picking up, then—combined with the current high liquidity base—monetary support for risk assets could strengthen.
In summary, the macro backdrop remains liquidity-supportive for Bitcoin, but it does not offer the same strong liquidity momentum as at the beginning of 2026. $BTC
In the chart, Global M2 Supply is reaching approximately 123.938, forming new peaks. In other words, there is no evidence of a structural contraction in global money supply. By contrast, the M2 bars have pulled back from the double-digit levels they reached at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, falling to roughly the 7–8% range in the latest segment. Therefore, we can read it as liquidity still expanding, but with a slower pace of expansion.
While a strong long-term relationship between Global M2 and Bitcoin can be observed, that relationship is not consistent in the short term; factors such as interest rates, the US dollar, risk appetite, and the crypto market’s own liquidity can significantly change timing.
As of September 2026, the policy of the major central banks has not yet fully moved onto a more easing-oriented footing. On September 16, the Fed raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% range. This was the first rate hike since 2023 and indicates that the Fed is still maintaining a tight stance in its fight against inflation.
Moreover, in the latest set of four major economic indicators, by the end of August 2026, Global M2 was at roughly $103.4 trillion; the three-month change was +1.17%, while the six-month change was weaker. This supports the idea that the money supply is expanding, but momentum is not exceptionally strong.
For Bitcoin, what will matter going forward is less whether M2 continues to rise, and more whether the M2 growth rate re-accelerates. If the green histogram rises again and shows that M2 YoY Growth is picking up, then—combined with the current high liquidity base—monetary support for risk assets could strengthen.
In summary, the macro backdrop remains liquidity-supportive for Bitcoin, but it does not offer the same strong liquidity momentum as at the beginning of 2026. $BTC
