Tonight’s PCE, and the positions of $ETH and $BTC are completely different.
The retail long/short ratio is still stuck at 2.79 for ETH (longs about 73.6%), while BTC is only 1.37 (about 58%). The big players are the opposite: ETH’s top holdings at 1.54 are far lower than retail, while BTC’s top at 1.93 is actually more bullish than retail. Over the last 6 hours, the active buy/sell ratio is 0.88 vs ETH’s average (more selling) and 1.13 for BTC (more buying)—positions are crowded on the long side, yet real taker activity is unloading ETH.
In terms of OI over 48 hours, ETH is only down -1.0%, while BTC is already -2.6%. Both sides’ perpetuals over 72 hours are trading at a discount (ETH basis premium average about -4.5 bp). But ETH’s funding rate over 21 periods has an annualized average around 5.8%, with 2 more instances near the top—whereas BTC is only 2.6% with 0 times at the top. Price 2672 is sitting below the 4H POC/SMA20 around 2685, VAL about 2662, and the lower band around 2642.
In the early session, BTC looks more like it’s going through deleveraging ahead of events, while over here on ETH the retail crowd is still not fully unwound. If PCE heats up, ETH longs will have less buffer than BTC; if it cools off, whether the shorts can sweep through 2660 in the same direction depends on the volume. Personally, I’m more focused on whether ETH relative to BTC needs to “pay back” deleveraging, rather than making a one-way bet on direction.
$ETH $BTC $SOL #宏观经济 #永续合约 #ETH
The retail long/short ratio is still stuck at 2.79 for ETH (longs about 73.6%), while BTC is only 1.37 (about 58%). The big players are the opposite: ETH’s top holdings at 1.54 are far lower than retail, while BTC’s top at 1.93 is actually more bullish than retail. Over the last 6 hours, the active buy/sell ratio is 0.88 vs ETH’s average (more selling) and 1.13 for BTC (more buying)—positions are crowded on the long side, yet real taker activity is unloading ETH.
In terms of OI over 48 hours, ETH is only down -1.0%, while BTC is already -2.6%. Both sides’ perpetuals over 72 hours are trading at a discount (ETH basis premium average about -4.5 bp). But ETH’s funding rate over 21 periods has an annualized average around 5.8%, with 2 more instances near the top—whereas BTC is only 2.6% with 0 times at the top. Price 2672 is sitting below the 4H POC/SMA20 around 2685, VAL about 2662, and the lower band around 2642.
In the early session, BTC looks more like it’s going through deleveraging ahead of events, while over here on ETH the retail crowd is still not fully unwound. If PCE heats up, ETH longs will have less buffer than BTC; if it cools off, whether the shorts can sweep through 2660 in the same direction depends on the volume. Personally, I’m more focused on whether ETH relative to BTC needs to “pay back” deleveraging, rather than making a one-way bet on direction.
$ETH $BTC $SOL #宏观经济 #永续合约 #ETH
