Last night I kept watching until a little past 2 a.m.
BTC touched 87,363, setting a new high since last January. Someone in the group posted a screenshot with the caption: “This time it’s real.”
As a result, the price dropped. Now it’s hovering around 86,400.
In the past 24 hours, more than $1 billion in short positions were liquidated. Those shorts stacked in the 82,000–86,000 range were wiped out by a single bullish candle. Crypto total market cap briefly returned to $3 trillion, and the Fear & Greed Index jumped to 78—entering “Extreme Greed” for the first time in more than a year.
But guess what—who’s secretly pulling the table away?
Probability assessment: I think the upward probability is a bit higher. But the 87,000–90,000 range is where the batch of people from last January got trapped. They waited for eight months, and now they're finally just about to break even. Guess what they’re going to do?
Today’s core variables: ① Can 87,000-88,000 hold and break out with volume—Deribit has about $2.7 billion of open interest on the 90k strike with nearby options; ② Market makers withdrawing large amounts of liquidity on Hyperliquid—Wintermute and Auros Global together reduced positions by nearly $100 million; ③ Fed officials’ Goolsbee speech today.
What did I say yesterday?
Yesterday I said the probability of upside is slightly higher, but 87,000 won’t be crossed in one go.
Result: it touched 87,363 in the early hours, then pulled back to 86,400. Direction was right, and the timing was right too.
But I made a mistake. Yesterday, when the RSI surged above 85, I hesitated—too overbought, should I reduce a bit first? I didn’t move. The result was a pullback of nearly $1,000.
The three most expensive words in this market are “I know.” The second most expensive is “let’s take another look.”
How did you trade yesterday? Leave a comment—tell me how many of us are like me.
Why do I feel the probability of upside is higher?
First, ETF put in 1 billion in a day.
On September 21, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw approximately $1 billion in net inflows in a single day, the highest since late October 2025. BlackRock’s two Ethereum ETFs bought a total of $1.01 billion worth of ETH over the past 20 trading days.
This isn’t retail traders charging in. This is institutions chasing with real money.
Second, the shorts got beaten down, but the long leverage hasn’t overheated yet.
After short liquidations exceeding $1 billion, Alphractal estimates that among currently unliquidated positions, longs account for about 71% and shorts only 29%. Longs are rebuilding, but perpetual funding rates are still neutral to slightly low—around 0.0064%, far from being crowded.
Translate this: Shorts got chased out, but longs haven’t gone crazy. This structure is healthier than “both long and short are crowded.”
Third, oil prices have been falling for days, and inflation expectations are ebbing.
Brent crude has fallen to around $98 per barrel, heading toward its longest streak of consecutive daily declines in a year. Saudi is pushing the restart of a key pipeline, and progress has been made in US-Iran talks. When oil falls → inflation expectations cool → pressure for rate hikes eases → risk assets rise, and the chain reaction runs in a positive direction.
Sector 1: macro news
1. The Fed: Goolsbee’s speech today—watch for remarks on the “3% neutral interest rate.”
In the September FOMC, rates were raised by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% with a vote of 12-0. Of the 18 attendees, 16 expect at least one more rate hike within the year.
Today, Fed Chair Goolsbee will deliver a speech. His earlier remarks are worth paying attention to—“eventually the Fed’s interest rate may settle around 3%, and inflation will fall back to 2%.” If today he continues to emphasize that “the neutral rate is 3%,” it means there is still downside room for current rates, which is generally favorable for risk assets. But if he emphasizes that “inflation hasn’t arrived yet,” then it’s hawkish.
Geopolitical event tree: US-Iran negotiations (probability ~50%) → If an agreement is reached, oil targets 90-95 and BTC benefits; Saudi oil pipeline restart fully (probability ~35%) → oil targets 85-90; military escalation (probability ~15%) → oil targets 105+, and downside risk for BTC to 80,000.
2. Traditional markets: crypto-related stocks are moving up in sync with BTC
US crypto-related stocks are continuing to rise. Circle jumped over 1% pre-market on the news of Binance’s $100 million investment. Cross-asset correlation: BTC vs gold’s 120-day rolling correlation remains high, and its correlation with the S&P 500 is about 0.34. BTC’s synchrony with gold is far higher than with US equities.
Liquidity/funds
ETFs: On September 21, net inflows in a single day were about $1 billion, the highest since late October 2025.
Binance contract activity: open interest in crypto perpetual futures rose to about $160 billion, the highest since late October 2025. Trading volume increased 39%, and open interest increased 7.6%. Funds are re-leveraging, not de-leveraging.
Funding rate term structure: BTC’s 8-hour average funding rate across the whole network is 0.0074%, Binance 0.0072%, OKX 0.0085%, Bybit 0.0039%. Overall it’s neutral to slightly low, and long crowding is still manageable.
Microstructure snapshot: there is strong buy support in the order book in the 84,500-85,000 range. On top, there is a dense sell-order zone at 87,000-88,000.
Flow of funds: Inside crypto—ETH at 2,745, SOL at 118, DOGE up about 11%; altcoins broadly follow up. Across assets—ETF inflows are back, institutional buying returns. Stablecoins—Circle received a $100 million investment from Binance, and the USDC ecosystem is expanding.
Institutional & fund moves
Institutional structure analysis: ETF inflows are highly concentrated, with BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC still being the main sources of inflows. BlackRock’s two ETH ETFs bought $1.01 billion worth of ETH over 20 days, with funds spreading from BTC to ETH.
① Ancient BitMEX whale transfers 2,000 BTC to Galaxy Digital: worth about $172 million. Galaxy Digital is an institutional-level financial services provider—this transfer may be a custody transfer, or it may be preparation for sale.
② FTX liquidation team transfers 27,400 ETH to Wintermute: worth about $75.32 million, possibly委托 it to sell. FTX’s liquidation assets are still continuously flowing out—these ETH entering market makers implies near-term selling pressure may increase.
③ A wallet that has been dormant for 14.2 years transferred 600 BTC: worth about $51.15 million, but there are still no signs of funds flowing into exchanges. The old whale is moving, but hasn’t sold yet.
On-chain pulse
On-chain data told a contradictory story.
First, over the past week, the number of Bitcoins transferred on-chain exceeded 1 million, corresponding to more than $92 billion—an all-time high in nearly four years. Network activity is surging, suggesting someone is moving large amounts of capital.
Second, Bitcoin has recently regained the main long-term moving averages (roughly the past ~300-day range) that it had been running beneath. Glassnode considers this level an important dividing line for the market entering a strong uptrend phase.
Third, the current price is above the “True Market Mean” and above the average buy cost of short-term holders, meaning most holders are in profit.
But the contradiction is this: on-chain activity hit a four-year high, which is usually a signal that “big players are moving.” Are they preparing to sell, or switching positions? I don’t know. But historically, when on-chain activity spikes and the price is already high, it often means distribution is happening.
I bet it won’t drop immediately. But my position will speak—not my mouth.
Behavior of top traders
Who are you sitting across from?
On Hyperliquid, among the top 100 accounts by open positions, the long/short ratio is 0.91—there are more shorts than longs. Shorts account for 52.32%, while longs account for 47.68%.
On Binance, retail longs-to-shorts are skewed bullish—there are more longs than shorts.
Pros are short, retail is long.
This signal has appeared many times historically. Each time it appears, the market usually lets retail traders win briefly first—then it takes it back in one go.
I don’t know whether this time will be the same. But I do know that when everyone is talking about “the return of a $3 trillion market cap,” smart money is quietly building short positions.
If you’re going long, ask yourself: where are you smarter than those 100 accounts?
Market-making behavior and liquidity risk
Market makers are withdrawing from the table. That’s more worth warning about than them shorting.
Over the past 2 hours, the two largest market makers on Hyperliquid have simultaneously cut positions significantly:
Auros Global: will fully close all positions on the platform and withdraw about $6 million to Binance. Previously, this market maker provided liquidity for 175 coins; even its BTC market-making scale alone was around $45 million.
Wintermute: liquidity provided on BTC and ETH has decreased by about 90%. The total market-making size across the two major coins dropped sharply from about $40 million to $4 million. Total position size fell from nearly $80 million to $41 million.
An estimate of the combined reduction scale by the two market makers could reach $100 million.
What does this mean?
Market makers don’t bet on direction—they only profit from spread. In normal circumstances, they wouldn’t actively withdraw liquidity. But when they believe the risk of their quotes is greater than the reward, the optimal strategy is to step away temporarily.
If market makers keep shrinking their positions, the buy orders supporting 84,000 could be pulled. Then even a small number of sell orders can trigger sharp stop-run spikes. Conversely, if the bid-ask spread returns to normal and market makers re-post orders, it means they think the risks are controllable—and liquidity will regroup.
People who set stop losses too tight get taken out by stop-run spikes. People who set stop losses too wide get worn down and killed by volatility. You choose.
Hot trend direction
① Binance invests $100 million in Circle—USDC is coming for USDT’s lunch
Binance invests $100 million into Circle at a 5% discount price and renews the five-year strategic partnership. Circle will pay Binance monthly incentive fees based on USDC balances, and USDC expands coverage via Binance’s global user network.
Translate this: Binance is betting real money on USDC, not USDT. This is an important signal for the stablecoin landscape. If USDC’s share keeps rising, the market’s liquidity structure will change.
② CFTC Chair: The market needs to be prepared for “large-scale tokenization”
CFTC Chair Selig said that changes in financial markets over the next decade may exceed the sum of what happened in the past several decades. Regulators need to adjust the existing framework for tokenization, on-chain finance, and 24/7 trading. The SEC also released an “innovation exemption” last week to make room for tokenized stock on-chain trading.
If you’re still waiting to enter only when “regulation is clear,” you may never get in. Regulation is always changing, but the direction is certain—give a path, not a one-size-fits-all rule.
Technical side
BTC: RSI(14) is currently around 75.55, in an overbought zone. On the 4-hour timeframe, price is testing resistance near the upper Bollinger Band around 88,725. MACD is still maintaining a golden cross; the bullish structure hasn’t broken, but signs of fading upside momentum are appearing in the short term.
Key levels:
87,000-88,000 on the upside is the first hurdle. After touching 87,363 in the early hours, it pulled back. On Deribit, the 90,000 strike call wall with nearby options has about $2.7 billion of open interest. Market makers’ hedging activity could amplify volatility in the 88,000-90,000 range.
84,500-85,000 below is the pullback confirmation zone—after breaking through, there was a pullback before, and buy pressure is still there. 83,000-83,600 is strong support.
Multi-timeframe consistency: Weekly is bullish (price is far above the 50-week moving average). Daily is bullish (MACD golden cross). 4-hour is bullish but overbought (RSI 75.55). 1-hour is ranging (sideways digestion near the highs). Consistency score: 3/4. Trend continuation probability is relatively high, but short-term overbought conditions still need to be digested.
Options signal: 30-day implied volatility is around 37-38%, neutral to slightly low. Deribit’s biggest pain point for September 26 options is around 72,000, but the current price is far above that—long option buyers’ bets are playing out.
ETH: around 2,745. Resistance is 2,850-2,900 above; support is 2,650-2,700 below.
SOL: around 118. Relatively strong. Resistance is 120-125 above; support is 110-112 below.
DOGE: up about 11%, leading the meme sector. 0.11 is resistance above; 0.095 is support below.
Outlook for today
Core judgment: I think the probability of upside is slightly higher. But 87,000-90,000 is a dense trapped-holder zone since January of this year, and market makers are withdrawing liquidity—short-term overbought conditions need to be digested.
Three scenarios:
Scenario 1 (highest probability, ~45%): BTC ranges and consolidates between 84,500-87,500, digesting overbought conditions and the impact of market makers withdrawing liquidity. 87,000 needs repeated tests to hold.
Scenario 2 (probability ~30%): ETF inflows continue, shorts keep covering, and BTC breaks and holds above 87,500 with volume, reaching 89,000-90,000. But it requires new capital to step in as momentum; short covering alone isn’t enough.
Scenario 3 (probability ~25%): Market makers continue withdrawing liquidity, and 87,000 gets rejected and pulls back. BTC retests 83,000-84,000. If market makers withdraw from the table and profit-taking flows in, the pullback magnitude could exceed expectations.
Trading approach
My thinking: direction is slightly bullish, but I won’t chase until 87,000 is cleared. RSI is 75.55 and overbought—if you chase and it pulls back to 84,000, you’d be trapped with a $3,000 loss immediately.
Trading decision tree:
If BTC pulls back to 84,500-85,000 and shows strong consolidation with volume → then go long with a light position, stop loss 83,500, targets 87,000-88,000.
If BTC breaks out with volume and holds above 87,500, and the 15-minute timeframe confirms → then go long with a light position, stop loss 86,500, targets 89,000-90,000.
If BTC bounces back to 87,000-87,500 but can’t move up on shrinking volume → then try short with a light position, stop loss 88,000, targets 85,000-84,500.
If price is ranging between 84,500-87,000 → then stand still
Estimated risk exposure: based on current volatility, BTC’s daily 95% confidence interval volatility is about ±$2,500. Go long at 86,000 with a stop loss at 83,500; maximum loss is about $2,500 (2.9%).
Statement of judgment fragility: my judgment is based on three assumptions—① market makers won’t keep withdrawing liquidity at a large scale; ② ETF inflows won’t reverse; ③ the US-Iran negotiation won’t break down. The most fragile assumption is the market makers’ behavior, because Wintermute and Auros have already cut positions by nearly $100 million. If they continue withdrawing, the support at 84,000 may not hold. If all three assumptions are overturned, the next key level is 80,000.
One last observation to watch.
What’s been rising the hardest today isn’t BTC—it’s altcoins. DOGE is up 11%, SOL is above 118, and the total crypto market cap is back to $3 trillion intraday. Altcoins move first, BTC follows, and by the end everyone thinks a bull market is here.
At a time like this, I’d glance at the Fear & Greed Index. 78, extremely greedy.
It’s not that I’m saying you shouldn’t be optimistic. I’m reminding myself—when market makers withdraw, retail traders are still adding leverage.
Have you made a move today? Are you up or down? Drop a comment in the section below—tell me how many of us feel the same. I hesitated all night watching the RSI.
Respect the market—tell the truth.