【Gold #XAU Night Session Quick Look: The rate-hike hammer has swung for six days—gold is still holding | September 22】
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates, and gold was smashed that day, hitting a low of 4,238.
We brought everyone through this area around 4,300 again and again! 🎉
Six days have passed. The pit has been filled, and gold is still standing.
What the hammer can’t knock down is worth taking a serious look at.
So what’s the situation now: rates are lifted to 3.75%–4.00%, all 12 votes passed unanimously, and Waller also said tightening isn’t over yet. In the “old script,” gold should have laid flat—but in reality, in just two days it filled the pit back to the 4,400 doorstep. The only cloud in the sky: the two-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.76%, and the ten-year is back above 5%—for non-yielding gold, the opportunity cost is real and tangible. Oil prices have been falling as well, pouring cold water on safe-haven demand. This week’s China–U.S. talks are the next roll of the dice.
Remember three numbers:
One, the key level 4,238— the low on the rate-hike day. If this week closes back below it, the short-term trend will change.
Two, the main gate 4,550— the 0.618 retracement and old resistance are welded together. If price reclaims it, the bearish (downward) structure is invalidated.
Three, the floor 4,000— this year it’s held through a war, an energy crisis, and a fractured U.S. Fed, and it hasn’t been broken.
Why is the floor so solid? In Q2, gold posted its largest quarterly drop since 2013. In the same quarter, central banks around the world net bought 289 tons—the strongest on record. China’s central bank has increased holdings for 21 straight months. Money on paper is running away, while money in the vault is rushing in—this is why the “gold hammer” can’t be driven down.
My take: in the short run, it churns and whips around in the range of 4,240–4,440. In the long run, it stands on the toughest group of global buyers beneath it. It still needs to rise about 30% from the old top at 5,589—so this road is destined to be bumpy.
There’s no such thing in this business as guaranteeing outcomes—only probabilities, odds, and discipline.
I’m also waiting for signals, watching together with the brothers. $XAU #AI股持续上涨还有哪些投资机会
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates, and gold was smashed that day, hitting a low of 4,238.
We brought everyone through this area around 4,300 again and again! 🎉
Six days have passed. The pit has been filled, and gold is still standing.
What the hammer can’t knock down is worth taking a serious look at.
So what’s the situation now: rates are lifted to 3.75%–4.00%, all 12 votes passed unanimously, and Waller also said tightening isn’t over yet. In the “old script,” gold should have laid flat—but in reality, in just two days it filled the pit back to the 4,400 doorstep. The only cloud in the sky: the two-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.76%, and the ten-year is back above 5%—for non-yielding gold, the opportunity cost is real and tangible. Oil prices have been falling as well, pouring cold water on safe-haven demand. This week’s China–U.S. talks are the next roll of the dice.
Remember three numbers:
One, the key level 4,238— the low on the rate-hike day. If this week closes back below it, the short-term trend will change.
Two, the main gate 4,550— the 0.618 retracement and old resistance are welded together. If price reclaims it, the bearish (downward) structure is invalidated.
Three, the floor 4,000— this year it’s held through a war, an energy crisis, and a fractured U.S. Fed, and it hasn’t been broken.
Why is the floor so solid? In Q2, gold posted its largest quarterly drop since 2013. In the same quarter, central banks around the world net bought 289 tons—the strongest on record. China’s central bank has increased holdings for 21 straight months. Money on paper is running away, while money in the vault is rushing in—this is why the “gold hammer” can’t be driven down.
My take: in the short run, it churns and whips around in the range of 4,240–4,440. In the long run, it stands on the toughest group of global buyers beneath it. It still needs to rise about 30% from the old top at 5,589—so this road is destined to be bumpy.
There’s no such thing in this business as guaranteeing outcomes—only probabilities, odds, and discipline.
I’m also waiting for signals, watching together with the brothers. $XAU #AI股持续上涨还有哪些投资机会
