$G$AMZN’s market interpretation that its long-term power supply agreement with Generac and AI giants is another confirmation of Amazon’s AI capital expenditures has everyone feeling optimistic. But I think this is precisely a signal that $AMZN is topping in the short term—not a buy point. The logic is threefold. First, historical precedent: when Microsoft signed a long-term contract with a data center cooling supplier in 2021, $MSFT then traded sideways for the next three months, with the stock reaching a stage peak once the supply-chain optimism had been priced in. Second, options data: recently, $AMZN’s call options open interest is extremely crowded in the $240–260 strike range; market makers’ gamma exposure is relatively high. Once the good news is exhausted, it’s easy to trigger a stampede of long-position liquidations. Third, the macro backdrop: today, Goldman Sachs has already cut key indicators for the S&P 500 bull market; Wall Street flashes warning signals nonstop. It even suggests buying five ETFs during pullbacks—this indicates institutions are preparing defensively rather than chasing. More importantly, companies like Generac—“shovel sellers”—that get heavily hyped often show up near the late stage of the AI narrative spreading to peripheral supply chains, not at the early stage. BTC is currently at $77,768, up +1.70% over the past 24 hours; risk appetite still seems intact, but if the 20-year QQQ monthly DCA rationale is repeatedly brought center stage, that’s a classic sign of retail FOMO. The real risk for $AMZN is not demand, but how valuation has started to overextend against the “AI power supply” story. What do you think? Feel free to share different views in the comments section