I’ve been trading for so many years, and one habit has become increasingly clear:
When the market presents a definite time point—say FOMC, CPI, or Non-Farm Payrolls—and the number of people bearish on the market is already clearly overwhelmingly one-sided, I won’t go short just because everyone else is.
It’s not because I must be bullish. It’s because at that moment, the odds for shorting are often already worse.
The Fed meeting in the early hours this morning is a great example.
The market has already priced in more than 90% for a 25bp rate hike, and the 10-year Treasury yield has also surged to around 5%. So the most commonly heard logic these days is:
The Fed rate hike = BTC is going to fall.
But $BTC had already dropped from around $82,000 to $75,000–$76,000. In reality, the market has already traded part of the rate-hike expectation in advance.
So if, at this time, everyone is already calling for a drop and you then run to chase a short around $75,000, in essence you’re trading from a position that has already moved—chasing a piece of news that everyone knows is coming.
So in situations like this, I’d rather not trade.
If it turns out to be unexpectedly hawkish, I’ll wait and look for a position after the market moves. If it matches expectations, at least I won’t end up getting knocked out by a rebound just because I chased the short based on market sentiment.
The place with the most people isn’t necessarily somewhere you can’t go.
But when everyone is waiting for the same time, the same news, and the same direction, I won’t be the last person to step in.
When the market presents a definite time point—say FOMC, CPI, or Non-Farm Payrolls—and the number of people bearish on the market is already clearly overwhelmingly one-sided, I won’t go short just because everyone else is.
It’s not because I must be bullish. It’s because at that moment, the odds for shorting are often already worse.
The Fed meeting in the early hours this morning is a great example.
The market has already priced in more than 90% for a 25bp rate hike, and the 10-year Treasury yield has also surged to around 5%. So the most commonly heard logic these days is:
The Fed rate hike = BTC is going to fall.
But $BTC had already dropped from around $82,000 to $75,000–$76,000. In reality, the market has already traded part of the rate-hike expectation in advance.
So if, at this time, everyone is already calling for a drop and you then run to chase a short around $75,000, in essence you’re trading from a position that has already moved—chasing a piece of news that everyone knows is coming.
So in situations like this, I’d rather not trade.
If it turns out to be unexpectedly hawkish, I’ll wait and look for a position after the market moves. If it matches expectations, at least I won’t end up getting knocked out by a rebound just because I chased the short based on market sentiment.
The place with the most people isn’t necessarily somewhere you can’t go.
But when everyone is waiting for the same time, the same news, and the same direction, I won’t be the last person to step in.