#美联储加息是否已成定局
I think: A 25-basis-point rate hike can serve as a high-probability scenario in the current context, but we still can’t directly say it’s a foregone conclusion. What’s more worth focusing on is whether this hike is a one-off move or whether it reopens the path for a series of consecutive hikes.
Based on the data already released, the Fed does have reasons to continue tightening policy.
In August, the U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year. Among the components, gasoline prices rose 3.9% month over month, contributing more than one-third of the overall increase. On employment, nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and average hourly earnings grew 3.1% year over year. Inflation is still above the 2% target, and employment hasn’t shown any clear signs of stalling.
Even more noteworthy is that at the July FOMC meeting, the federal funds rate was maintained at 3.50%–3.75%, but the vote was 9 to 3, with three members already leaning toward a 25-basis-point hike. This suggests that hawkish pressure within the committee is not small.
However, the market’s positioning is about probability, not outcomes. Even if this hike really happens, if the statement and the dot plot release signals that this is a one-time adjustment, BTC and tech stocks may not necessarily keep falling. Conversely, even if there’s no hike for now, as long as Powell’s remarks are hawkish enough, risk assets could still face pressure.
My focus is on:
BTC: Before the event, avoid high leverage and chasing with full positions. Pay close attention to the U.S. dollar, real yields, and the guidance after the meeting.
Tech stocks: They’re more sensitive to interest rates and valuations. You can’t just look at index up/down moves; you also need to see whether earnings and cash flow can support valuations.
Gold: Rate hikes typically raise real yields and suppress gold prices, but inflation, geopolitical risks, and safe-haven demand could create an offset.
Overall positioning: Keep cash and flexibility, which matters more than betting on a single “data-driven” move. Wait until the statement, dot plot, and press conference information are complete before judging whether there’s a trend change.
So, my current baseline view is: expectations for a single 25-basis-point hike may already have been partially priced in by the market, but “consecutive hikes” have not been fully locked in by the data.
Do you think this will be a one-off hike, or the start of a new cycle of rate increases? If the hike is carried out, among BTC, tech stocks, and gold, which one do you expect to see the biggest volatility?
I think: A 25-basis-point rate hike can serve as a high-probability scenario in the current context, but we still can’t directly say it’s a foregone conclusion. What’s more worth focusing on is whether this hike is a one-off move or whether it reopens the path for a series of consecutive hikes.
Based on the data already released, the Fed does have reasons to continue tightening policy.
In August, the U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month and 2.4% year over year. Among the components, gasoline prices rose 3.9% month over month, contributing more than one-third of the overall increase. On employment, nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and average hourly earnings grew 3.1% year over year. Inflation is still above the 2% target, and employment hasn’t shown any clear signs of stalling.
Even more noteworthy is that at the July FOMC meeting, the federal funds rate was maintained at 3.50%–3.75%, but the vote was 9 to 3, with three members already leaning toward a 25-basis-point hike. This suggests that hawkish pressure within the committee is not small.
However, the market’s positioning is about probability, not outcomes. Even if this hike really happens, if the statement and the dot plot release signals that this is a one-time adjustment, BTC and tech stocks may not necessarily keep falling. Conversely, even if there’s no hike for now, as long as Powell’s remarks are hawkish enough, risk assets could still face pressure.
My focus is on:
BTC: Before the event, avoid high leverage and chasing with full positions. Pay close attention to the U.S. dollar, real yields, and the guidance after the meeting.
Tech stocks: They’re more sensitive to interest rates and valuations. You can’t just look at index up/down moves; you also need to see whether earnings and cash flow can support valuations.
Gold: Rate hikes typically raise real yields and suppress gold prices, but inflation, geopolitical risks, and safe-haven demand could create an offset.
Overall positioning: Keep cash and flexibility, which matters more than betting on a single “data-driven” move. Wait until the statement, dot plot, and press conference information are complete before judging whether there’s a trend change.
So, my current baseline view is: expectations for a single 25-basis-point hike may already have been partially priced in by the market, but “consecutive hikes” have not been fully locked in by the data.
Do you think this will be a one-off hike, or the start of a new cycle of rate increases? If the hike is carried out, among BTC, tech stocks, and gold, which one do you expect to see the biggest volatility?