The halving does not cause immediate price increases: The effect arrives 12–18 months later.
Historical data shows that #Bitcoin never rises immediately after the halving, but rather months afterward:
• Halving 2012 → ATH in 2013 (≈12 months).
• Halving 2016 → ATH in 2017 (≈17 months).
• Halving 2020 → ATH in 2021 (≈11 months).
• Halving 2024 → the historical pattern points to 2025–2026.
The supply reduction is small at first, but it becomes critical when demand increases months later.
The main reason Bitcoin didn’t rise immediately after the 2024 halving is that this cycle doesn’t resemble the previous ones: the market had already priced in the event, the structure changed completely with the ETFs, and capital flows did not match the supply shock.
In earlier cycles (2012, 2016, 2020), the market was small and reactive; now it is macro-dependent and dominated by institutions.
Historical data shows that #Bitcoin never rises immediately after the halving, but rather months afterward:
• Halving 2012 → ATH in 2013 (≈12 months).
• Halving 2016 → ATH in 2017 (≈17 months).
• Halving 2020 → ATH in 2021 (≈11 months).
• Halving 2024 → the historical pattern points to 2025–2026.
The supply reduction is small at first, but it becomes critical when demand increases months later.
The main reason Bitcoin didn’t rise immediately after the 2024 halving is that this cycle doesn’t resemble the previous ones: the market had already priced in the event, the structure changed completely with the ETFs, and capital flows did not match the supply shock.
In earlier cycles (2012, 2016, 2020), the market was small and reactive; now it is macro-dependent and dominated by institutions.
