The latest August nonfarm payrolls report released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that new jobs rose by 162,000, nearly three times the 56,000 economists had previously expected. After the data was released, the futures market quickly repriced: CME data showed the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September jumped directly to 60.3%, rate-hike expectations implied by the swaps market also exceeded 60%, and even the probability of another hike in October rose to 54.6%. U.S. equity index futures came under short-term pressure in response, with Dow E-mini falling 152 points (-0.28%), S&P 500 E-mini down 17.25 points (-0.22%), while Nasdaq 100 E-mini still edged up 0.07%.
This explosive growth in nonfarm payrolls completely broke the market’s expectation that the labor market would cool rapidly. Capital macroeconomist Stephen Brown pointed out that the strong performance of the non-medical private sector and the rise in the labor force participation rate make it very difficult for doves to find an excuse to keep rates unchanged. Although strong employment has reignited tightening expectations, from a deeper technical and fundamental perspective, it precisely proves the resilience of the U.S. economic base, further disproving the so-called hard-landing risk.
Macroeconomic assets’ digestion of this data has shown an excellent anti-decline structure. Although S&P futures experienced a short-term technical pullback due to rate expectations, the Nasdaq’s countertrend strength (+0.07%) indicates that growth-tech funds did not see panic selling, and short-term bearish pressure was quickly absorbed near key support levels. The fundamental support brought by a strong economy is gradually offsetting the valuation दबressure from high rates, and there are no signs of liquidity exhaustion.
For the crypto market, the resilience of the macro fundamentals actually builds a stronger medium- to long-term floor for risk assets. $BTC In the short term, it may be pressured by the dollar rebound triggered by rising rate-hike odds, but this tightening driven by “economic prosperity” is different from a “stagflation crisis.” After the market digests the bearish impact of a September rate hike, risk appetite for liquidity is expected to stage a strong rebound at key technical support levels, setting the stage for the next breakout. 📊
#fed #非农数据 #加密市场
This explosive growth in nonfarm payrolls completely broke the market’s expectation that the labor market would cool rapidly. Capital macroeconomist Stephen Brown pointed out that the strong performance of the non-medical private sector and the rise in the labor force participation rate make it very difficult for doves to find an excuse to keep rates unchanged. Although strong employment has reignited tightening expectations, from a deeper technical and fundamental perspective, it precisely proves the resilience of the U.S. economic base, further disproving the so-called hard-landing risk.
Macroeconomic assets’ digestion of this data has shown an excellent anti-decline structure. Although S&P futures experienced a short-term technical pullback due to rate expectations, the Nasdaq’s countertrend strength (+0.07%) indicates that growth-tech funds did not see panic selling, and short-term bearish pressure was quickly absorbed near key support levels. The fundamental support brought by a strong economy is gradually offsetting the valuation दबressure from high rates, and there are no signs of liquidity exhaustion.
For the crypto market, the resilience of the macro fundamentals actually builds a stronger medium- to long-term floor for risk assets. $BTC In the short term, it may be pressured by the dollar rebound triggered by rising rate-hike odds, but this tightening driven by “economic prosperity” is different from a “stagflation crisis.” After the market digests the bearish impact of a September rate hike, risk appetite for liquidity is expected to stage a strong rebound at key technical support levels, setting the stage for the next breakout. 📊
#fed #非农数据 #加密市场