ChainCatcher message: Fidelity Digital Assets released its Q4 crypto market outlook, stating that by the end of August, Bitcoin and the crypto market surged significantly. Major tokens such as BTC and ETH recorded their largest monthly gains since the end of 2025. Some investors are watching whether November forms a bear-market bottom (based on the four-year cycle theory), but Fidelity cautioned that the pattern may not repeat—the bottom may have already appeared in July, or could set new lows in November or even later.

Fidelity said that historically, the end of a bear market is often accompanied by a period of low volatility, followed by prices expanding upward. By the end of August, BTC rose more than 25% in a single week, while ETH and SOL gained 34.1% and 28%, respectively. Potential negatives in the recent period—such as hardware wallet security incidents and stalled progress on the CLARITY Act—have not pulled prices down, which may further reinforce the view that crypto assets are approaching a bottom. Stablecoin trading volume has reached 2.3 times Visa’s, the RWA market’s growth in 2026 is faster than in prior years, and on-chain adoption continues to rise. The CLARITY Act is still under review in the Senate, and the SEC submitted a proposal for Regulation Crypto Assets last week. Fidelity advises investors to maintain a long-term perspective.