Everyone's expecting a pre-halving dump based on past performance.
But did we really dump every time?
A closer look reveals that this didn't happen at all and the single example when it did was the well-known covid crash.
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Every cycle when Bitcoin stopped consolidating at the lows and started moving up?
It went up and didn't look back anymore with the exceptions of some natural bullish pullbacks on the market.
Once bitcoin started to make new highs it continued to do so.
The only exception to the rule?
The 2020 covid crash that coincidentally happened pre-halving.
It's the only example when Bitcoin went to revisit the lows and pulled backed greatly after it started to move up and make new highs.
It's also the only example where a black swan event happened.
And for those they don't believe it was a crash due to covid?
EVERY market made this crash at that time.
Stocks / Metals / Commodities / Crypto and more.
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Then why is this pre-halving dump such a popular and widely known belief amongst many?
Because they look at the past without context.
They also look at the most recent example which is last cycle 2020.
They see a price dump in 2020 and take that for granted for all future events.
They don't take into account that this wasn't a bitcoin thing.
This was a whole world thing.
There's a good chance, actually an extremely likely chance that there wouldn't have been a pre-halving dump last time at all if that wouldn't have happened.
The cycles before that also justify that thought if you are a fan of taking historical price action into account.
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Conclusion:
We have more cycles when Bitcoin didn't pre-dump after it started moving up vs having a pre-dump.
And the 1 single time it did it was due to a historical event on a global scale.
Which is extremely unreliable and unlikely to make a bet on.
