According to Bloomberg, speculators are showing signs of nervousness ahead of a once-every-four-years Bitcoin code adjustment, which has historically been bullish for the cryptocurrency. The implied volatility for Bitcoin options saw a significant increase last weekend, reversing a downward trend observed in the previous week. Bitcoin's price experienced a more than 8% range swing on Friday, causing a stir among investors.
Implied volatility on contracts set to expire in the next two weeks has seen the most significant increase, jumping from 59% to 71% in just two days. This suggests that expectations for near-term volatility are on the rise. Traders, uncertain but willing to pay more for options, are likely seeking protection against price swings. This has led to potentially high premiums for downward protection.
Since the approval of US exchange-traded funds to hold Bitcoin in January, the cryptocurrency's price has mostly surged. However, in the past month, the price has fluctuated within a range. Traders are now focusing on the upcoming 'halving' event, scheduled for around April 20. This event will see the rewards that miners receive for verifying transactions on the blockchain cut in half, effectively reducing the supply of additional tokens.
Bartosz Lipinski, founder and CEO of Cube Exchange, believes the spike in Bitcoin expiries is related to people betting on the demand for Bitcoin on the day of the halving. He suggests that the reduced supply will make Bitcoin more expensive. This event is unique in Bitcoin's history as it creates pressure on an already inelastic price.
Previous halvings have shown mixed short-term impacts, while the long-term effects have been bullish. However, Kaiko, a data analytics firm, cautions that a sample size of three is not necessarily large enough to draw definitive conclusions. They also note that other bullish events in the industry have contributed to the gains.