As of the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is around $27,500. Since last weekend, the market has been in a state of volatility. Although there have been some fluctuations since early Monday morning, they have not been able to break through the strong fluctuations of the 1-hour Bollinger Band, so we still regard it as a volatile market.
From the analysis of Bollinger Bands, the 1-hour chart shows a small fluctuation and tightening state for 48 hours, and the Bollinger Bands of the 4-hour chart are also gradually tightening. It is expected that there may be larger fluctuations in the evening. The daily chart still shows an upward trend of shocks, and the technical side maintains a bullish pattern, which is similar to the situation last week.
Last week, many bloggers on Twitter had different views on the market trend. Some believed that the market was in the early stages of a bull market, while others insisted on a bearish outlook. Although the trading activity during the holiday was not large, it was relatively active, which may have been affected by the closure of domestic financial markets, leading to capital inflows into the crypto market. However, the true bullish trend will be verified on Monday. The active trading during the holiday may have been partly due to capital inflows, but was also affected by the decline in the US dollar index. Today is Monday, and it is time to verify the results of our analysis.
However, the market saw a significant decline today, but then rebounded quickly. This decline may be due to the resumption of trading in domestic financial markets and the withdrawal of funds from the crypto market, but the rebound was very strong. Although there was a large amount of selling at 6 am and 8 am, the outflow of funds may not be obvious, and bullish sentiment may have swallowed up this part of the selling pressure.
The current selling pressure has increased significantly. In addition, there have been recent reports that Justin Sun has transferred his staked Ethereum on LiDo to an exchange, and that the Ethereum Foundation has begun transferring tokens to exchanges. Although this cannot be considered a sell signal, the on-chain data is also worth paying attention to.
From a macroeconomic perspective, global financial market sentiment has been affected by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Middle East, leading to an increase in the US dollar index and energy prices, and the stock market has suffered another setback. Although the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Middle East is a historical legacy, this conflict should not be underestimated. Both sides have invested a lot of resources, and the United States has provided support to Israel, including material and military assistance. The international community has different voices, and this conflict has become part of a geopolitical game. However, compared with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Middle East may have less impact on financial markets, but it still needs to be closely watched.
Although geopolitical conflicts may lead to financial market volatility, the first to be affected may be crude oil, gold, physical commodities and futures markets. Risk aversion may be more inclined to gold and the US dollar, while the funds flowing into the crypto market may be limited. In addition, the United States may need a lot of financial support to send troops to the Middle East, which will depend on the impact of the US dollar index and US Treasury bonds on global financial markets.
In general, the market currently lacks obvious positive sentiment, especially when the global economy is facing high interest rates in the United States. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the blood-sucking pressure on the US dollar and US bonds, and the overall market sentiment has become pessimistic, losing the previous FOMO sentiment. The lack of new funds entering the market has increased the possibility of market volatility falling or maintaining low liquidity shocks.
In a low liquidity market, we need to be wary of sudden operations by the main players.
Contract market: Consider the pullback and be bearish, and enter the market cautiously with reference to the 4-hour midline. Be sure to set a stop loss, and not setting a stop loss may lead to losses. The market may continue to fluctuate below, and the 27,000 position may become a support.
Spot market: Currently, many people are looking for opportunities to ambush coins, but it is recommended to anchor large crypto assets. The choice of entry point is very critical and must be cautious. Don't be swayed by emotions and look at the market rationally.
The market may need to wait for more positive sentiment to see a significant rise. In this case, it is necessary to operate with caution and formulate trading strategies according to market conditions. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to market dynamics and make wise decisions.
Investment is risky, please be cautious
