The bull came and went again - market analysis and subsequent market forecast 10.8

华山炼金师 · 2023-10-08T14:51:55.000Z

The first post after the holiday. Let’s talk about the market conditions today and see if there are any suitable opportunities for copycats tomorrow. Let’s first review the previous trends. Big pie daily line: As shown in the figure, since the big pie hit the year's high of 3.18w on July 13, it continued to fluctuate and fall for two months. Until the National Day, a positive line broke through the downward trend line for more than two months, and then reached the highest Hit 2.86w. But this breakthrough has a flaw, the trading volume is mediocre and there is no amplification. The upward breakthrough itself is a strong signal, but the shrinkage is a weak signal. If one strong and one weak are mixed together to form a sum, then the signal will not have much meaning. Then on October 2nd, the K-line immediately showed a negative line with heavy volume. Fortunately, there was no positive or negative line, so the long and short sides once again reached a balance here, and the market entered a sideways fluctuation. What is more interesting during this period is the big needle on October 6th. Let’s look at the 15min line: This round of rapid decline started at 2.77w. After it was inserted at 2.68w, it pulled up in a V-shape, reaching a maximum of 2.83w. The V shape is low on the left and high on the right, reflecting that bulls are still relatively strong here. However, here is another but, this rapid rise did not reach a new high in the end - breaking through 2.86w. As of writing this article, the price has dropped back to about 2.77w. It is worth watching whether it can be sustained here. Then we return to the daily line to talk about the key points of observation and follow-up deductions. The first position to observe is 2.77w, which cannot be sustained. The first target position (observation position) below is 2.70w. If it cannot hold on around 2.70w, then this short-term upward trend will come to an end. This is a more pessimistic and trouble-free move. The observation position above is still looking at 2.86w, that is, whether it can reach a new high. However, even if it is a new high, I personally think that the target in the short and medium term is around 3.10,000, because the fundamentals in the short and medium term - liquidity cannot support the market to break through 3.20,000. ——The reason why the market has been so boring since October 1st is a classic manifestation of liquidity exhaustion. To sum up, I think there will be two scenarios for the subsequent trend: one is optimistic, the market returns to around 3w, makes a triple top (head and shoulders top), and then falls. Another pessimistic point of view is that the market cannot successfully break through 2.86. After continuing to fluctuate for a few days, it resumes its decline and hits 2.86 again.5w. The script is like this, but of course the actual execution will definitely not be as smooth as the diagram. As for the specific situation, it depends on the performance of the pie price at three observation points: 2.70w, 2.77w, and 2.86w. In terms of operation, I still hold the same view. The short-term contract of the big pie has no operational significance. Note that what is mentioned here is the short-term contract, and the medium and long-term contracts are another matter. I’ll see if there are any suitable copycats that I can check out in the next two days. If you have any good targets, you can recommend them in the comment section and I’ll go and observe them. Regarding market analysis, I think one more point can be added here, that is, the winning rate of technical analysis is not only related to the level of the person, but also related to the market atmosphere and the quality of the market. When the market is good, even if you are just starting to make blind analysis, you can always get it right; when the market is bad, many experts will always fail. I mention this because I want to say that your inability to make money on a stock with a bad trend is not entirely your fault. You don’t have to doubt yourself. The best way to deal with this situation is to stay away from it. That's right, I'm talking about pie. That’s it, I love you guys~

The first post-holiday post, today I will talk about the overall market situation, and tomorrow I will see if there are any suitable opportunities in the copycat industry.
Let's review the previous trend.
As shown in the figure, Bitcoin has been fluctuating and falling for two months since it hit its highest point of 3.18w on July 13, until the National Day, when a positive line broke through the downward trend line of more than two months, and then reached a high of 2.86w.
However, this breakthrough has a flaw: the trading volume is flat and has not expanded.
An upward breakthrough itself is a strong signal, but a shrinking volume is a weak signal. If you mix the strong and weak together and try to find the sum of them, then the signal will not be of much significance.
Afterwards, on October 2, the K-line immediately showed a negative line with large volume. Fortunately, there was no negative line covering the positive line, so the bulls and bears reached a balance here again, and the market entered a sideways fluctuation.
The most interesting thing during this period was the big needle on October 6th. Let’s look at it on the 15-minute line:
This round of rapid decline started at 2.77w, reached 2.68w, and then pulled up in a V shape, reaching a maximum of 2.83w.
The V-shaped pattern is low on the left and high on the right, reflecting that the bulls are still relatively strong here.
However, there is another but here. This wave of rapid rise finally failed to reach a new high - breaking through 2.86w.
As of writing this article, the price has fallen back to around 27,700 yuan. It remains to be seen whether it can hold up here.
 
Then let’s go back to the daily line and talk about the key points of observation and subsequent deductions.
The first position to observe is 2.77w. It cannot hold here, so the first target position (observation position) is 2.70w.
If the price cannot hold at around 2.70w, then this short-term upward trend will come to an end. This is a more pessimistic and easy way to go.
The upper observation position is still 2.86w, that is, whether it can reach a new high.
But, even if it is a new high, I personally think that the medium- to short-term target will be around 3.1w, because the medium- to short-term fundamentals - liquidity cannot support the big cake to break through 3.2w.
——The reason why the market has been so boring since October 1st is a classic manifestation of liquidity depletion.
 
To sum up, I think there will be two scenarios for the subsequent trend:
An optimistic point of view is that Bitcoin will return to around 30,000, form a triple top (head and shoulders top), and then fall.
Another pessimistic view is that Bitcoin cannot successfully break through 2.86, and after continuing to fluctuate for a few days, it will resume its decline and hit 2.5w again.
This is the script, but of course the actual process will not be as smooth as the diagram.
As for the specific situation, it depends on the performance of Bitcoin prices at the three observation points of 27,000, 27,700, and 28,600.
 
In terms of operation, I still hold the same view that short-term contracts of Bitcoin have no operational significance. Please note that we are talking about short-term contracts here, and medium and long-term contracts are another matter.
I will see if there are any suitable copycats to try in the next two days. If you have any good targets, you can recommend them in the comment section and I will observe.
 
Regarding market analysis, I think one more point can be added here, that is, the winning rate of technical analysis is not only related to the level of the person, but also to the market atmosphere and the market conditions.
When the market is good, even if you are just getting started, you can still make the right analysis; when the market is bad, even many experts will fail frequently.
I want to say that if you cannot make money on a bad stock, it is not entirely your fault. You don’t have to doubt yourself. The best way to deal with this situation is to stay away from it. Yes, I am talking about pie.
 
That's it, love you guys, quack~