Bitcoin quickly retested $27,000 when Wall Street opened on October 6 as U.S. jobs data unnerved the market. U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) jumped to nearly twice the September forecast, at 336,000 versus 170,000. The result points to the labor market's continued resilience to the Fed's anti-inflationary measures in the form of interest rate hikes, but is seen as negative for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
The market interprets these data as a new threat of a possible 25 basis point interest rate hike on November 1 (yesterday's probability was 25%, and today's probability is 31.3%). The Fed had previously expected the pause to be until June 2024, and now expects the pause to be until July 2024. After the report was released, market futures just fell 400+ points, which is not what the Fed wants to see.
Looking at Bitcoin’s specific reaction, Trader Skew showed spot and derivatives traders exiting on NFP. Trader Daan Crypto Trades updated his analysis from earlier in the day, highlighting the decline in Bitcoin’s open interest (OI). This has previously reached levels that have previously triggered both upside and downside volatility.
The market interprets these data as a new threat of a possible 25 basis point interest rate hike on November 1 (yesterday's probability was 25%, and today's probability is 31.3%). The Fed had previously expected the pause to be until June 2024, and now expects the pause to be until July 2024. After the report was released, market futures just fell 400+ points, which is not what the Fed wants to see.
Looking at Bitcoin’s specific reaction, Trader Skew showed spot and derivatives traders exiting on NFP. Trader Daan Crypto Trades updated his analysis from earlier in the day, highlighting the decline in Bitcoin’s open interest (OI). This has previously reached levels that have previously triggered both upside and downside volatility.