Assuming that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin is still valid, let's assume that the price of Bitcoin will experience a black swan and directly fall to an extreme situation of 14,000 or 15,000. Of course, the probability of this is not high. If you build a position in the most conservative and safe way, then you should build at least 50% of the position now. If it really falls later, you will really buy at the bottom. By this time next year, your account should be in a profitable state. If not, the four-year narrative of Bitcoin is problematic, which is another matter.