topic

Key Takeaways

1. Strategy (MSTR) Will Not Sell Its Bitcoin

Saylor says the company views Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset, not a short-term trade.

He dismisses forced liquidation fears.

According to company leadership, BTC would need to fall around 90% and stay there for years before refinancing becomes a serious issue.

2. They Plan to Keep Buying — Every Quarter

Strategy intends to continue purchasing Bitcoin regularly.

They recently bought 1,142 BTC (Feb 2–8).

Saylor emphasized: “We’re not going to be selling. We are going to be buying bitcoin.”

This reinforces Strategy’s identity as essentially a leveraged Bitcoin proxy in the public markets.

3. Financial Risk According to Saylor

Saylor claims:

2.5 years of cash reserves for dividends and debt payments.

Net leverage ratio lower than many investment-grade companies.

Ability to roll forward debt even under extreme stress.

However, this depends heavily on:

Access to capital markets

Bitcoin not staying severely depressed for multiple years

Investor confidence in MSTR equity and convertible debt

4. $5.1 Billion Unrealized Loss

BTC is below Strategy’s average purchase price (~$76,056).

Unrealized losses ≠ realized losses.

As long as they don’t sell, losses remain on paper.

This is the core of Saylor’s thesis: volatility doesn’t matter if you never sell.

5. Volatility & Stock Behavior

MSTR stock has had heavy drawdowns.

It behaves like a leveraged Bitcoin ETF with embedded corporate leverage.

Options open interest is high → heavy speculative trading.

MSTR tends to:

Amplify BTC upside

Amplify BTC downside

6. The $60,000 “Production Floor” Argument

Some argue Bitcoin has a structural floor around mining cost (~$60K).
Saylor downplayed this, saying institutional adoption will matter more than mining economics.

Historically, mining cost does not create a hard floor — it’s more of a pressure zone than a guarantee.

---

What This Really Signals

Saylor is doubling down on three core beliefs:

1. Bitcoin will outperform traditional assets long-term.

2. Volatility is normal and irrelevant over multi-year horizons.

3. Capital markets will remain open to Strategy.

This is a conviction-based, high-beta strategy, not a conservative treasury allocation.

---

Risk Factors (Important)

Even if Saylor sounds confident, risks remain:

Prolonged bear market

Tightening credit markets

Convertible debt pressure

Equity dilution if they raise more capital

Correlation between BTC drawdowns and MSTR share volatility

Strategy is effectively running a leveraged long Bitcoin position funded through capital markets.

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Bigger Picture

Saylor isn’t trying to predict 12-month prices.
He’s betting on a 4–8 year outperformance thesis vs. the S&P 500.

That’s a macro conviction trade.

---

If you’d like, I can also break down:

📊 Whether MSTR is riskier than holding BTC directly

📉 What happens to MSTR if BTC drops to $50k / $40k / $USDC 30k

🧠 Whether this is smart capital allocation or excessive leverage

📈 Long-term BTC outlook vs S&P modeling

What angle are you most interested in?
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Today, I want to share briefly how to find next coin before breakout. For this approach, we are concentrating on taking advantage of coins currently trading on low volume range between $200k - $1M. The market trading psychology behind this is to take advantage of low trading volume, seating a buy position before high market volatility engagement.
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Now let's proceed after knowing the above stated conditions. From your binanace market dashboard showing list of actively trading pairs, tap the "vol" section to toggle down or up sorting the currently trading pairs volume in ascending or descending order. Also, you can easily scroll up or down to check actively trading pairs on low volume.

KEY:
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