pmi

U.S. PMI eased, but interest rates rose: On the 23rd, the two-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.69% from 4.65% the previous day.

If you’re hoping for a cooling economy and cheaper financing, it’s natural to see weaker data and expect monetary easing. But it’s important to distinguish between slower expansion and accelerating price hikes by businesses.

S&P Global reported on the 23rd that the composite PMI fell to 57.6 in October from 58.4 in September, still well above the 50-point expansion threshold. Meanwhile, the pace of selling-price increases by businesses was the fastest since August 2022. Demand remains strong and price pressures have not eased, so slower growth alone is not enough to conclude that inflation is cooling.

The two-year yield had fallen 16 basis points on the 22nd, then rebounded 4 basis points on the 23rd; it has not moved in one direction consistently. This is a Treasury yield, not a funding rate on contracts, and the day’s change cannot be attributed entirely to the PMI.

For risk positions that rely on cheap financing, delayed monetary easing means higher costs for holding positions over time. The case for easing financing pressure will be more complete if businesses slow their price increases and short-term yields continue to fall. Betting on the PMI headline alone means taking on the risk that neither of these developments has materialized yet.

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#宏观 #PMI #InterestRates

S&P Global released the preliminary October PMI data for the United States today, showing a notable divergence across economic sectors. The Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly climbed to 56.0, beating expectations of 55.5 and marking its highest reading in 53 months. In contrast, the Services PMI softened to 57.9, below forecasts of 58.0 and down from 58.8 previously, pulling the Composite PMI to 57.6.

The 53-month peak in manufacturing activity highlights strong underlying industrial resilience despite tighter monetary policy. However, the slight cooling in services suggests consumer demand is moderating. Combined, these figures present a mixed macroeconomic backdrop for the Federal Reserve as it monitors growth momentum.

Traditional financial markets reacted with caution following the release. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped to five-week lows, falling 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, while bond yields digested the persistent strength in factory activity alongside equity de-risking.

For digital assets, robust industrial data dampens immediate hopes for aggressive monetary easing, keeping risk appetite constrained. $BTC and broader crypto markets may face continued short-term consolidation as traders balance sticky economic strength with softening tech valuations. 📊

#PMI #USData #MacroEconomics #FederalReserve

U.S. October Flash PMI: Factory Price Growth Fastest in 4 Years, Making Fed Easing Next Week Harder

S&P Global released its preliminary October U.S. composite PMI on Friday, at 57.6, down from September’s 58.4—a five-year high—but still in expansion territory. New orders rose to 58.2, their highest level since March 2022. The output price index hit 59.8, marking the fastest rate of increase since August 2022. The supplier delivery times index fell to 38.1, its weakest reading in more than four years. Manufacturing employment rose at its fastest pace since March 2012. (Reuters/S&P Global)

【View】
Growth hasn’t buckled, and pricing power is returning—a hawkish signal ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The economy remains hot, and amid the oil price shock, businesses are passing costs on to customers. Markets are currently betting the Fed will hold rates steady this week, with the probability of a December rate hike at around 80%. This PMI report, with prices rising while activity holds up, looks more likely to fuel the case for a December hike.

【Opportunities/Risks】
Watch closely for whether Wednesday’s FOMC statement and press conference emphasize sticky inflation. If the Fed signals a December hike, risk assets could come under pressure, and $BTC will need to hold the ETF cost-basis zone around $80,000–$81,500. If the Fed plays down the prospect of a hike, there may be a short-term window for a rebound. Also keep an eye on next week’s preliminary GDP reading and the earnings reports of hyperscale cloud providers for their impact on the AI spending narrative.

Do you think this PMI report, with prices rising while activity holds up, will make the Fed more willing to hike rates in December, or will it be constrained by political considerations ahead of the election?

#宏观经济 #美联储 #PMI $BTC $ETH
For reference only; this does not constitute investment advice.

S&P Global released preliminary US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for October today. The preliminary US manufacturing PMI came in at 56, significantly above the market forecast of 55.5 and the previous reading of 55.9, reaching its highest level in nearly 53 months. The preliminary services PMI came in at 57.9, slightly below the forecast of 58.0 and the previous reading of 58.8, while the composite PMI remained firmly in expansion territory at 57.6.

The sharp rebound in manufacturing activity reflects the continued resilience of the US real economy, but also reinforces expectations that inflation will remain sticky. With concerns about inflation still lingering, stronger-than-expected output data has directly weakened bets on a rapid shift toward accommodative monetary policy, putting rate-cut trades to a severe repricing test.

As a result, risk appetite in traditional financial markets came under clear pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell to nearly five-week lows, down 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, on the day. Meanwhile, supported by economic resilience, the dollar index and US Treasury yields remained elevated, continuing to weigh on the valuations of risk assets.

For crypto markets, a meaningful easing of macro liquidity conditions appears unlikely in the short term, dampening investors’ appetite for high-volatility assets. If an overheated economy prompts central banks to maintain a hawkish stance, $BTC could face valuation pressure from tighter liquidity. Investors should remain highly cautious and guard against the risk of a second bottom.📉

#PMI #USMarket #MacroEconomics

S&P Global officially released the preliminary US October PMI data today. The data showed that the preliminary US October Manufacturing PMI came in at 56.0, not only exceeding the market forecast of 55.5 and the previous reading of 55.9, but also reaching its highest level in nearly 53 months. The preliminary Composite PMI came in at 57.6, also above the forecast of 57.4, while the preliminary Services PMI came in at 57.9.

Manufacturing data showed strong, better-than-expected expansion, dispelling earlier market concerns that economic momentum was beginning to slow. Driven by the manufacturing index's sharp rebound to 56.0, the broader macroeconomic fundamentals demonstrated remarkable resilience, clearing away technical concerns about a hard landing.

Strong real-economy data are providing a solid floor of support for risk assets. Although the broader US equity market has seen a mild technical pullback recently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index stabilized and rebounded 0.5% intraday, indicating that major bullish investors are actively buying at key support levels and that market risk appetite is gradually recovering.

For the crypto market, resilient fundamentals are creating a favorable liquidity environment for high-beta assets. With macroeconomic recession fears disproven, buying support for $BTC and major crypto assets in key support zones has strengthened significantly. They may be poised for a technical rebound as risk appetite recovers. 📈

#MacroData #PMI #CryptoMarket

S&P Global has just released its preliminary October U.S. PMI figures, offering a multifaceted view of the economy’s health. Most notably, the manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 56, well above the forecast of 55.5 and reaching its highest level in 53 months. By contrast, the services PMI edged down to 57.9, bringing the composite PMI to 57.6.

The strong rebound in manufacturing suggests that new orders and industrial supply chains are recovering very positively. However, with all the indices holding firmly above the 50-point expansion threshold, concerns are also growing that inflation could return. The market has been forced to reassess the possibility that monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer than expected.

In response to the solid economic data, bond yields and the U.S. dollar held firm, putting direct pressure on the stock market. U.S. stock indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq faced selling pressure and hit their lowest levels in five weeks. Large capital flows are showing a defensive tilt amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

In the crypto market, short-term caution could slow speculative flows into $BTC and other risky assets. However, the fact that the U.S. economy continues to grow rather than slip into recession remains a positive macroeconomic support for the market’s long-term structure.

#PMI #MacroEconomics #CryptoAnalysis

Tonight at 9:45 and 10:00, two data releases will decide how Bitcoin spends this weekend.

Here’s the counterintuitive part: whatever the data shows, it could hurt crypto. PMI beats expectations and consumer confidence rebounds → the economy is doing fine → a December rate hike is all but certain, and crypto takes a hit. Data comes in much worse than expected → recession fears return → risk assets get dumped, and crypto takes a hit too. Damned either way.

Traders are already positioning themselves: $BTC is stuck in the middle at 81,600. 80,000 is the line in the sand—lose it, and 72,000–75,000 is next. It’ll take a move above 82,900 to get out of the woods. Friday’s weekly candle close and thin weekend liquidity will only amplify the volatility.

The comments section is open: A) Buy the dip once tonight’s data is out; B) Get out first and wait for the dust to settle.

#PMI #美联储 #Bitcoin
$BTC $ETH $SOL

S&P Global released its flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for France for October today. The data showed that France’s flash manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 49.3, well below the 50-point threshold between expansion and contraction, and far below the market expectation of 50.5 and the previous reading of 50.6. The services PMI also plunged from 51.2 to 48.4, pulling the flash composite PMI down to just 48.4.

As the eurozone’s second-largest economy, France saw all its key PMIs fall into contraction territory. This sharp deterioration significantly undermines the market’s previous, cautiously optimistic expectations that the European economy would stabilize and recover. The signal clearly indicates that, under the combined pressure of tight monetary policy and weak external demand, the risk of a deteriorating economic outlook in Europe’s core economies is accelerating, and speculation over further rate cuts by the European Central Bank is likely to intensify once again.

In macro-financial markets, the euro fell against the U.S. dollar shortly after the data was released, breaking below the 1.12 level and declining 0.12% on the day. The accelerating loss of economic momentum could put further downward pressure on European bond yields, while highlighting the relative safe-haven resilience of U.S. dollar assets amid macroeconomic headwinds. Global foreign exchange and sovereign bond markets are facing a fresh repricing of expectations.

For crypto markets, the widespread weakness in European economic data has further heightened concerns about a global growth slowdown. With both liquidity and fundamentals under pressure, investor risk appetite is clearly subdued. Investors are more inclined to stay on the sidelines or shift back into higher-certainty assets. Risk assets such as BTC may face sustained liquidity constraints and further volatility tests in the near term.

#MacroEconomics #PMI #Europe #CryptoLiquidity

S&P Global’s September services PMI report, released today, came in at 58.8, up from 58.7 the previous month. Overall business activity in the US is accelerating to its highest level in more than five years, keeping the composite PMI at a solid 58.4.

Improving economic data has reinforced forecasts that US GDP growth could reach 4% in the third quarter, led by a boom in the technology and AI sectors. However, the risk of the economy overheating is returning as input cost inflation climbs to a four-year high, adding further pressure to the Fed’s efforts to contain inflation.

This rapid growth is fueling concerns in financial markets that monetary policy will remain tighter for longer. US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index remain under significant upward pressure, lowering expectations for policy easing in the near term.

In crypto markets, short-term caution could intensify as concerns about persistent inflation draw capital toward traditional safe-haven assets. However, the expanding technology infrastructure and AI boom remains a medium-term catalyst supporting related narratives in the market. $BTC

#PMI #USData #MacroEconomy

【BTC faces 4 more macroeconomic tests this week? The Fed is key 🔥】

🔥 宏观消息面解读进群聊
Bitcoin has just bounced, but this week brings another wave of macroeconomic data.

And this time, the most important thing isn’t whether any single data point looks good or bad—it’s whether the Fed will continue signaling rate hikes.

There are 4 key things to watch this week:

First, the U.S. services PMI.
If the services sector remains strong, it would suggest the economy is still resilient, and markets may once again worry that interest rates will stay high.

Second, the Fed meeting minutes.
This is the most important item this week. Markets want to know how hawkish Fed officials were after the last rate hike, and whether they’ll raise rates again this year.

Third, U.S. initial jobless claims.
Last week, nonfarm payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, well below expectations. Markets are now watching to see whether the labor market is really starting to cool.

Fourth, U.S. consumer confidence.
This data has a relatively smaller impact, but a sharp deterioration in consumer confidence could also prompt markets to reassess the state of the U.S. economy.

Put simply, BTC is facing one central question right now:

Is the U.S. economy actually “cooling,” or is it just slowing temporarily?

If the economy cools and employment continues to weaken, markets may lower their expectations for further rate hikes—which could actually be good for BTC.

But if the economy and inflation remain resilient and the Fed stays hawkish, the dollar and Treasury yields could put pressure on risk assets again.

📌 So what really matters this week isn’t just whether BTC goes up or down. It’s whether the services sector, employment data, and Fed meeting minutes further shift market expectations for the next interest rate decision.
#美联储10月加息概率降至17% #PMI

🔥 US ISM Manufacturing PMI comes in! One article to understand the logic behind gold, silver, + BTC/ETH market moves!

Key data: September ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.5, below expectations of 55; prior reading was 54.6. It still holds above the 50 line dividing expansion and contraction.

One-sentence takeaway: Economic resilience is still there, but the expansion momentum is cooling off—this is a neutral-to-slightly bullish signal, “not bad, but not strong.”

✨ Gold & Silver
The data came in below expectations. Market expectations for the Fed to keep interest rates high eased slightly. Treasury yields saw downward pressure, giving gold and silver a chance for a short-term rebound.
👉 Strategy: Gold—try a small long position near support; take profit in batches at overhead resistance levels. Silver—higher sensitivity means stronger volatility; control position size strictly.
⚠️ Note: The data did not break below the expansion/contraction line, so it’s not a major bullish signal for a recession scenario. This rebound is more like a range-bound market—don’t chase higher prices!

✨ BTC & ETH
Crypto assets are risk assets. This data suggests the US economy is not facing a “hard landing” risk, so it won’t trigger panic-style crashes. However, it’s also not strong enough to ignite a full-blown bull run. Most likely, prices will continue to trade in a range.
👉 Strategy: Don’t chase upside with heavy size. You can continue holding BTC/ETH positions; reduce exposure in batches near higher levels. If you’re on the sidelines, wait for a pullback to key support before considering a low entry. Focus on upcoming catalysts like the Non-Farm Payrolls and PCE inflation data.

💡 Summary: This report is just a warm-up; the main event is still ahead—Non-Farm Payrolls + PCE. The current market is mostly range-bound. Don’t go all-in, and keep leverage light.

Do you think gold will surge first tonight, or pull back first? Let’s discuss in the comments!

⚠️ Risk warning: Viewpoints are for market analysis only and do not constitute any investment advice. Leverage trading carries extremely high risk. #ISM #PMI $BTC $ETH $XAU

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI index reached 54.5 versus the expected 54.8.

The US economy is still in an expansion phase.
#PMI

S&P Global’s latest release shows the final value of the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for September. The data indicates that the indicator ultimately came in at 55.9, which is not only below the prior reading of 57, but also reflects signs of a marginal slowdown in the expansion momentum of U.S. manufacturing.

Although the data remains in the expansion zone above the 50 break-even line, the sharp drop in the pace of expansion cannot be ignored. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s recent return to a tighter policy path, the cost and interest-rate pressures faced by real manufacturing are beginning to show up, and market assessments of economic growth resilience may need to be recalibrated.

The macro-financial markets have reacted in a defensive manner. Signals of slower economic growth may weigh on the U.S. dollar index in the near term, while fluctuations in the U.S. Treasury yield curve are in focus. If overall risk-off sentiment intensifies, it could also limit upside potential for commodities and traditional risk assets.

For the crypto market, weaker macro fundamentals are not simply a positive for rate cuts; they instead intensify concerns about stagflation during a period of liquidity contraction. In the absence of strong incremental capital inflows, core assets such as $BTC may face greater near-term volatility and adjustment pressure. Investors should be alert to downside risks stemming from a decline in sentiment.📉

#MacroEconomics #PMI #CryptoMarket

Wow, China’s manufacturing PMI is back above 50, and Asian stocks jump right at the open!

In September, the official manufacturing PMI hit 50.1, up from 49.8 in August—returning to the expansion zone for the first time since June. Beijing wasted no time with a “combo deal”: lowering financing costs and the central bank stepping up lending. At the open, Japan’s Nikkei surged 647 points to 66,128. TSMC touched 25,05 New Taiwan dollars. Philadelphia’s semiconductor stocks rose 1.3% overnight. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng index actually fell 0.53%, as money took profits before the National Day holiday.

This is a macro tailwind for the market: risk appetite is back. BTC was quoted at 83,430, up 0.57%, and funds behind Shan Sai’s institutional targets are rotating next. Goldman Sachs put it plainly: this looks more like a policy signal than an immediate, strong stimulus.

With China’s PMI back above the breakeven line, Asian buying keeps at it. Tonight, stay cautious before the U.S. PCE data lands.

#宏观 #PMI
$BTC $ETH

According to the latest official data, China’s September official manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1. It not only met market expectations, but also successfully crossed the breakeven line and returned to the expansion zone, up from the previous 49.8. Meanwhile, Australia reported that its August non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year rose 4%, which was higher than the previous 3.5% but below the market expectation of 4.1%.

The manufacturing sector’s return to the expansion zone confirms that momentum in the real economy is bottoming out and picking up, providing solid support for global macro liquidity. Australia’s inflation data coming in below expectations has also effectively eased concerns among Asia-Pacific central banks about further tightening. Positive fundamentals are gradually building.

In the FX market, after the data release, AUD/USD saw a short-term drop of nearly 20 pips to around 0.6975 for technical consolidation. Overall, the significant repair in leading economic indicators has improved risk appetite markedly. After the bottoming structure is completed, non–USD currencies and commodities are expected to see a stronger upward moving-average alignment.

For the crypto market, the substantial improvement in macro fundamentals provides a healthy long setup for risk assets such as $BTC . As expectations for liquidity improve and panic sentiment fades, clear signs of capital returning have emerged. The certainty of launching a new upswing after breaking key resistance levels is continuing to strengthen.📊

#MacroEconomics #PMI #CryptoTrading

According to the latest data released by S&P Global, the UK’s services sector PMI for September came in at 51.7, not only below the market expectation of 52.0, but also clearly down from the previous reading of 52.5, marking the lowest level in nearly three months. Meanwhile, driven by rising energy costs prompted by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the services-sector price growth rate hit a new high in nearly four months. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at S&P Global, said that the quarter’s UK economic growth rate on a quarter-on-quarter basis is expected to slow to 0.1%, presenting a complex situation in which business activity growth is slowing while inflationary pressure persists.

From a macroeconomic fundamentals perspective, this data shows that the Bank of England (BOE) is facing a dual challenge of weak economic growth and sticky inflation. Although the momentum of services-sector expansion has weakened, the rebound in the price index within the indicators suggests that the tight monetary environment may last longer. However, from a technical and funding-game perspective, a slowdown in real-economy growth typically forces monetary authorities to accelerate policy shifts, which would limit the room for further rate hikes—potentially providing support for long-term liquidity easing.

In financial markets, the British pound exchange rate and UK government bond yields saw wide-ranging volatility after the data release. Although sticky inflation dampens expectations for rate cuts in the short term, as the economic data cools clearly, market pricing for how long high interest rates will be maintained is being recalibrated. As funds seek tools to hedge against erosion of the currency’s purchasing power and macro uncertainty, the underlying support logic for both global risk assets and safe-haven assets is gradually strengthening.

For the crypto market, macro-level concerns about inflation and slowing growth are often catalysts for funds to shift from traditional systems to inflation-hedging assets. $BTC has demonstrated very strong resilience to drawdowns at a key support level, and its technical structure has maintained a benign consolidation trend. As major global central banks will eventually turn toward easing to address economic downturns, expectations of abundant liquidity are likely to become the core driver pushing digital assets into the next upward leg.📊

#PMI #Inflation #CryptoMarket

S&P Global has released the latest initial data for Germany’s September manufacturing PMI, which came in at 53.8, below market expectations of 54.0, and slightly down from the prior value of 54.3. Although the data shows a mild downward trend, the overall index remains comfortably above the 50 boom-bust line, indicating that manufacturing activity in Europe’s largest economy is still in an expansionary range and there are no signs of a hard landing.

From a technical and macro-cycle perspective, this slight pullback in the PMI is entirely within a healthy adjustment range that the market can absorb. Combined with the momentum repair that has persisted for several months, the narrow-range fluctuations of manufacturing data within the expansionary range represent a typical pattern of an upward continuation. This suggests that while Europe’s economy is affected by the lagged impact of a high-interest-rate environment, its underlying resilience is still sufficient to avoid systemic risks of a deep recession, providing a cushion for a smooth transition in subsequent macro liquidity.

In traditional financial markets, the easing of economic data effectively helps curb any secondary rebound in inflation expectations, thereby reinforcing the ECB’s dovish expectations for further rate cuts within the year. European and U.S. bond yields face downward pressure as they retreat, and the U.S. dollar index is nearing a loss of upward momentum at a key resistance level. For risk assets, stronger certainty around the rate-cut cycle typically means lower discount rates and marginal improvement in global liquidity, which offers solid technical support for risk exposures such as equities and commodities.

For crypto assets, the warming of expectations for ECB easing is gradually releasing incremental marginal liquidity. After $BTC completes a chip turnover at the high-level key support zone, the spillover effect driven by the macro decline in interest rates will become an important catalyst for breaking through the resistance level above. As long as core inflation does not unexpectedly run out of control, the macro logic of easier liquidity will continue to dominate the Q4 market, and the market has ample momentum to move into a stronger structural uptrend.📈

#PMI #MacroEconomics #CryptoMarkets

$BTC Last night after the PMI was released, prices fell and open interest rose; the bearish branch I planned yesterday hit. Yesterday at 21:45 I was waiting for the U.S. July PMI: the composite index rose from 51.9 to 53.6, meaning economic activity was stronger than last month, and companies’ rate of price increases is also accelerating.

In the first full 4H after the news landed, BTC fell from 65,083 to 64,094, while contract open interest actually increased by 1.91%. This suggests that during the decline, someone actively opened short positions—it's not only long holders passively exiting. Therefore, the conditions I set yesterday were confirmed.

After that, price did not show any clear rebound, and open interest did not decrease. Next, we’ll see whether the new shorts continue to stay open: if the price stops falling and open interest drops, it means shorts take profit and exit; if the price keeps weakening and open interest rises again, it means actively opening shorts is still increasing.

#BTC #交易复盘 #PMI

Newly released US production data is sending fairly mixed signals.

Specifically, the ISM Manufacturing PMI index reached 55.6 points, beating expectations quite clearly versus the forecast of 53.9 (the previous period was 53.3), indicating that factory activity is growing more strongly than expected. In contrast, S&P Global’s Manufacturing PMI index was flat at 53.9 points, reflecting that this sector is still maintaining a steady pace.

#Economy #US #PMI $USD $BTC

$NEAR